The closely bunched probabilities around 275,000–320,000 first-round ballots reflect uncertainty over general-election participation in a high-stakes contest between incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola. Alaska’s August primary produced elevated turnout relative to recent cycles, driven by the open governor’s race and Senate contest, yet forecasters expect November participation to fall short of 2024 presidential levels without a national race at the top of the ticket. Recent polling averages show a narrow contest with Peltola and Sullivan each near or below 50 percent in initial preferences, plus minor-candidate and exhausted ballots that keep total volume sensitive to turnout differentials among independents and Republicans. Late-campaign get-out-the-vote intensity, early-vote reporting, and any final-week developments could shift totals within or outside the leading ranges.