A Purdue University-backed expedition has just reached Nikumaroro to survey the Taraia Object, a lagoon anomaly visible in imagery since 2020 and aerial photos from 1938, but traders see little chance of confirmed recovery by year-end. The 17-person team plans five days of photography, sonar, magnetometer scans, and limited dredging to test for aircraft aluminum and Electra-specific features, with any positive identification likely requiring a larger 2027 excavation and possible recovery in 2027-2028. Historical searches have repeatedly come up empty amid competing theories favoring a deep-ocean crash near Howland Island, and the short remaining window leaves scant room for verification or extraction. Market-implied odds of 85.5% on No reflect this timeline mismatch and the preliminary nature of the current effort.