Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?
$38,489,726 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
$3,779,191 Vol.
1%
June 30
$1,245,050 Vol.
3%
September 30
$581,769 Vol.
7%
Disyembre 31
$29,004,579 Vol.
15%
$38,489,726 Vol.
May 31
$3,779,191 Vol.
1%
June 30
$1,245,050 Vol.
3%
September 30
$581,769 Vol.
7%
Disyembre 31
$29,004,579 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Pentagon's May 8 release of the first batch of declassified UAP files—ordered by President Trump in February—has intensified public fascination with unidentified anomalous phenomena, featuring historical sightings, photos, and military reports hosted on war.gov/ufo, with more tranches promised every few weeks. However, the documents explicitly state no evidence of extraterrestrial life or recovered alien technology, aligning with prior AARO reports and rebutting disclosure advocates like Rep. Tim Burchett, who pushes for fuller transparency amid congressional scrutiny. This cultural UFO momentum, amplified by media buzz and documentaries, drives trader caution, as official confirmation remains elusive; watch for upcoming hearings or file drops that could shift sentiment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The Pentagon's May 8 release of the first batch of declassified UAP files—ordered by President Trump in February—has intensified public fascination with unidentified anomalous phenomena, featuring historical sightings, photos, and military reports hosted on war.gov/ufo, with more tranches promised every few weeks. However, the documents explicitly state no evidence of extraterrestrial life or recovered alien technology, aligning with prior AARO reports and rebutting disclosure advocates like Rep. Tim Burchett, who pushes for fuller transparency amid congressional scrutiny. This cultural UFO momentum, amplified by media buzz and documentaries, drives trader caution, as official confirmation remains elusive; watch for upcoming hearings or file drops that could shift sentiment before 2027.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Apr 18 2026
Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.
Apr 10 2026
Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.
Mar 18 2026
Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.
Feb 20 2026
President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.
Feb 19 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.
Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.
Feb 9 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.
Feb 7 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files detailing numerous sightings
December 31 jumps to 17%8%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of videos, imagery, and testimonies about UFO sightings, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, renewing public interest but leaving interpretation open. This transparency raised market optimism for a later confirmation date, pushing prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Feb 3 2026
President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.
Jan 20 2026
Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
December 31 rises to 9%1%
A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.
Jan 5 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate
December 31 rises to 7%1%
The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.
Dec 27 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.
Dec 6 2025
Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.
Nov 29 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unusual aerial phenomena, which reignited public and market interest in the possibility of extraterrestrial life. Former President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging public scrutiny and speculation, which likely caused the market price to rise sharply around this date.
Nov 28 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 13%5%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies describing unusual aerial phenomena, which reignited public curiosity and speculation about extraterrestrial life. President Trump also publicly encouraged transparency on the topic, boosting market optimism for official confirmation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Pentagon's May 8 release of the first batch of declassified UAP files—ordered by President Trump in February—has intensified public fascination with unidentified anomalous phenomena, featuring historical sightings, photos, and military reports hosted on war.gov/ufo, with more tranches promised every few weeks. However, the documents explicitly state no evidence of extraterrestrial life or recovered alien technology, aligning with prior AARO reports and rebutting disclosure advocates like Rep. Tim Burchett, who pushes for fuller transparency amid congressional scrutiny. This cultural UFO momentum, amplified by media buzz and documentaries, drives trader caution, as official confirmation remains elusive; watch for upcoming hearings or file drops that could shift sentiment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The Pentagon's May 8 release of the first batch of declassified UAP files—ordered by President Trump in February—has intensified public fascination with unidentified anomalous phenomena, featuring historical sightings, photos, and military reports hosted on war.gov/ufo, with more tranches promised every few weeks. However, the documents explicitly state no evidence of extraterrestrial life or recovered alien technology, aligning with prior AARO reports and rebutting disclosure advocates like Rep. Tim Burchett, who pushes for fuller transparency amid congressional scrutiny. This cultural UFO momentum, amplified by media buzz and documentaries, drives trader caution, as official confirmation remains elusive; watch for upcoming hearings or file drops that could shift sentiment before 2027.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Apr 18 2026
Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.
Apr 10 2026
Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.
Mar 18 2026
Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.
Feb 20 2026
President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.
Feb 19 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.
Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.
Feb 9 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.
Feb 7 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files detailing numerous sightings
December 31 jumps to 17%8%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of videos, imagery, and testimonies about UFO sightings, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, renewing public interest but leaving interpretation open. This transparency raised market optimism for a later confirmation date, pushing prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Feb 3 2026
President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.
Jan 20 2026
Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
December 31 rises to 9%1%
A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.
Jan 5 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate
December 31 rises to 7%1%
The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.
Dec 27 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.
Dec 6 2025
Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.
Nov 29 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unusual aerial phenomena, which reignited public and market interest in the possibility of extraterrestrial life. Former President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging public scrutiny and speculation, which likely caused the market price to rise sharply around this date.
Nov 28 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 13%5%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies describing unusual aerial phenomena, which reignited public curiosity and speculation about extraterrestrial life. President Trump also publicly encouraged transparency on the topic, boosting market optimism for official confirmation by year-end.
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Ang "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Disyembre 31" sa 14%, sinusundan ng "September 30" sa 7%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 14¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 14% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay naka-generate ng $38.5 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 25, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay "Disyembre 31" sa 14%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 14% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "September 30" sa 7%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $38.5 million na na-trade sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 14¢ para sa "Disyembre 31" sa "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 14% na tsansa na ang "Disyembre 31" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 14¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 86¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" market ay naka-schedule na mag-resolve sa o bandang Dec 31, 2026. Ibig sabihin ang trading ay mananatiling bukas at patuloy na magbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon hanggang sa petsang iyon. Ang eksaktong timing ng resolution ay nakadepende sa kung kailan magiging available ang opisyal na resulta, gaya ng nakabalangkas sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.
Ang "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 1,251 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng "Makukumpirma ba ng US na ang mga dayuhan ay umiiral sa pamamagitan ng...?." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
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