Anthropic leads the market-implied odds at 55.5% for the largest 2026 IPO by debut market cap, ahead of SpaceX at 44.5%, driven by its confidential S-1 filing and expectations of a November listing targeting $2 trillion or more. The company’s annualized revenue run rate reached approximately $65 billion by July 2026, up sharply from prior periods, supporting a potential raise of up to $100 billion despite a reported $42 billion net loss in 2025. SpaceX completed its record June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation after raising $75 billion, with shares later trading near $2 trillion, but its debut size now serves as the benchmark Anthropic seeks to surpass. xAI’s 25.5% odds reflect its February acquisition by SpaceX, removing it as a standalone contender, while other names remain below 1% amid delayed or smaller-scale plans. Traders are pricing the outcome around Anthropic’s ability to execute on its revenue trajectory and valuation targets before year-end.