Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% tsansa
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% tsansa
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,662Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,662Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution criteria—requiring a Category 5 U.S. landfall, VEI 6+ eruption, 8.5+ magnitude quake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” NOAA’s August 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-normal season with only 0–2 major hurricanes likely, while USGS records show recent events like the Colombia sequence topping out below threshold. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor drier patterns that suppress tropical cyclone intensification, and global volcanic and seismic monitoring networks report no signals of imminent qualification. Historical base rates confirm these thresholds are crossed infrequently, supporting trader consensus that the balance of 2026 is unlikely to meet any criterion.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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