NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% tsansa
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% tsansa
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$178,784Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$178,784Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system report no cataloged near-Earth objects or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the strong “No” consensus at 88.5% implied probability. Continuous radar and optical surveys, plus the Scout early-detection pipeline, have tracked all recent discoveries—including 2026 HJ1 and similar objects—confirming safe lunar-distance or greater flybys. Historical impact rates for 10-kiloton-class events remain multi-year to decadal, with no statistical uptick or undetected large-body signals in current planetary-defense data. Mid-year passage without incident further reinforces trader sentiment that existing monitoring coverage leaves little room for surprise.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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