NASA’s ongoing surveillance of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst in the remainder of 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome. Recent months have seen an uptick in reported fireballs, including a 0.25-kiloton event over Ohio in March, yet all detected objects remain well below the energy threshold and burn up harmlessly. Planetary-defense networks, including NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and infrasound arrays, continue to catalog small bolides without identifying any that could reach 10 kt. With half the year elapsed and no qualifying impact recorded, the low historical frequency of such events—roughly one every several years—reinforces the current market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$153,460 Vol.
$153,460 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,460 Vol.
$153,460 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s ongoing surveillance of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst in the remainder of 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome. Recent months have seen an uptick in reported fireballs, including a 0.25-kiloton event over Ohio in March, yet all detected objects remain well below the energy threshold and burn up harmlessly. Planetary-defense networks, including NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and infrasound arrays, continue to catalog small bolides without identifying any that could reach 10 kt. With half the year elapsed and no qualifying impact recorded, the low historical frequency of such events—roughly one every several years—reinforces the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,460Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s ongoing surveillance of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst in the remainder of 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome. Recent months have seen an uptick in reported fireballs, including a 0.25-kiloton event over Ohio in March, yet all detected objects remain well below the energy threshold and burn up harmlessly. Planetary-defense networks, including NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and infrasound arrays, continue to catalog small bolides without identifying any that could reach 10 kt. With half the year elapsed and no qualifying impact recorded, the low historical frequency of such events—roughly one every several years—reinforces the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,460Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s ongoing surveillance of near-Earth objects shows no asteroids on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton or greater airburst in the remainder of 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly behind the “No” outcome. Recent months have seen an uptick in reported fireballs, including a 0.25-kiloton event over Ohio in March, yet all detected objects remain well below the energy threshold and burn up harmlessly. Planetary-defense networks, including NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and infrasound arrays, continue to catalog small bolides without identifying any that could reach 10 kt. With half the year elapsed and no qualifying impact recorded, the low historical frequency of such events—roughly one every several years—reinforces the current market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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