Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability for a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects confirmed preparations for a mid-2026 public debut, including a confidential S-1 filing in early April and planned roadshow starting June 8, targeting a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation with a potential $75 billion raise—the largest in history. Surging private valuations, recently above $1.3 trillion amid Starlink's subscriber growth and Starship milestones, underpin this consensus, bolstered by Elon Musk's affirmation of 2026 timelines. Key challenges include regulatory scrutiny over Musk's post-IPO voting control, $23 billion debt, and 2025 losses, plus market volatility that could force delays or valuation cuts before the anticipated late-June listing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Pinakamababang Strikes)
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Pinakamababang Strikes)
1T+ 94%
Walang IPO bago ang 2028 1.7%
700B–800B 1.4%
800B–900B 1.1%
$3,401,121 Vol.
$3,401,121 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
$500B–$600B
<1%
$600B–$700B
<1%
700B–800B
1%
800B–900B
1%
900B–1T
1%
1T+
94%
Walang IPO bago ang 2028
2%
1T+ 94%
Walang IPO bago ang 2028 1.7%
700B–800B 1.4%
800B–900B 1.1%
$3,401,121 Vol.
$3,401,121 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$374,530 Vol.
<1%
$500B–$600B
$319,879 Vol.
<1%
$600B–$700B
$287,107 Vol.
<1%
700B–800B
$331,388 Vol.
1%
800B–900B
$481,942 Vol.
1%
900B–1T
$418,627 Vol.
1%
1T+
$598,757 Vol.
94%
Walang IPO bago ang 2028
$588,890 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability for a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects confirmed preparations for a mid-2026 public debut, including a confidential S-1 filing in early April and planned roadshow starting June 8, targeting a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation with a potential $75 billion raise—the largest in history. Surging private valuations, recently above $1.3 trillion amid Starlink's subscriber growth and Starship milestones, underpin this consensus, bolstered by Elon Musk's affirmation of 2026 timelines. Key challenges include regulatory scrutiny over Musk's post-IPO voting control, $23 billion debt, and 2025 losses, plus market volatility that could force delays or valuation cuts before the anticipated late-June listing.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,401,121Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability for a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects confirmed preparations for a mid-2026 public debut, including a confidential S-1 filing in early April and planned roadshow starting June 8, targeting a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation with a potential $75 billion raise—the largest in history. Surging private valuations, recently above $1.3 trillion amid Starlink's subscriber growth and Starship milestones, underpin this consensus, bolstered by Elon Musk's affirmation of 2026 timelines. Key challenges include regulatory scrutiny over Musk's post-IPO voting control, $23 billion debt, and 2025 losses, plus market volatility that could force delays or valuation cuts before the anticipated late-June listing.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$3,401,121Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders' overwhelming 93.5% implied probability for a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion reflects confirmed preparations for a mid-2026 public debut, including a confidential S-1 filing in early April and planned roadshow starting June 8, targeting a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation with a potential $75 billion raise—the largest in history. Surging private valuations, recently above $1.3 trillion amid Starlink's subscriber growth and Starship milestones, underpin this consensus, bolstered by Elon Musk's affirmation of 2026 timelines. Key challenges include regulatory scrutiny over Musk's post-IPO voting control, $23 billion debt, and 2025 losses, plus market volatility that could force delays or valuation cuts before the anticipated late-June listing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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