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Teknolohiya·SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

icon for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Teknolohiya·SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

$1,757,734 Vol.

May 15, 2026
Polymarket

$1,757,734 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$86,527 Vol.

<1%

May 22

$9,424 Vol.

62%

May 31

$15,624 Vol.

92%

June 30

$2,710 Vol.

94%

Super Heavy booster explodes?

$19,538 Vol.

95%

Successful splash down?

$11,965 Vol.

65%

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

$30,513 Vol.

<1%

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's Starship Flight 12 targets liftoff as early as May 19 from a redesigned Starbase pad, debuting the next-generation V3 Starship and Super Heavy booster powered by evolved Raptor engines, as announced on May 12. A successful launch rehearsal on May 11 loaded over 5,000 metric tons of propellant onto the fully stacked vehicles for the first time, following April's full-duration static fire and early-May stacking. These milestones underscore rapid reusability progress amid competitive pressure from rivals like Blue Origin's New Glenn. Traders should watch FAA launch licensing approval, weather in South Texas, and final preflight checks, with historical flights showing potential for last-minute delays.

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$1,757,734
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's Starship Flight 12 targets liftoff as early as May 19 from a redesigned Starbase pad, debuting the next-generation V3 Starship and Super Heavy booster powered by evolved Raptor engines, as announced on May 12. A successful launch rehearsal on May 11 loaded over 5,000 metric tons of propellant onto the fully stacked vehicles for the first time, following April's full-duration static fire and early-May stacking. These milestones underscore rapid reusability progress amid competitive pressure from rivals like Blue Origin's New Glenn. Traders should watch FAA launch licensing approval, weather in South Texas, and final preflight checks, with historical flights showing potential for last-minute delays.

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$1,757,734
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 19 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Super Heavy booster explodes?" sa 95%, sinusundan ng "June 30" sa 94%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 95¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 95% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12" ay naka-generate ng $1.8 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Oct 17, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12," i-browse ang 19 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12" ay "Super Heavy booster explodes?" sa 95%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 95% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "June 30" sa 94%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.