Strong El Niño conditions, now confirmed and intensifying through the peak August–October period, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, suppressing storm formation and rapid intensification. As of late August 2026, the season has produced just three named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at only 3 percent of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season, with 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected and U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities estimated at 17–24 percent, far under the historical average near 43 percent. These factors, combined with the season’s unusually slow start and limited remaining window before November, support trader consensus that a Category 4 landfall in the continental United States before 2027 remains unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% tsansa
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% tsansa
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now confirmed and intensifying through the peak August–October period, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, suppressing storm formation and rapid intensification. As of late August 2026, the season has produced just three named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at only 3 percent of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season, with 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected and U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities estimated at 17–24 percent, far under the historical average near 43 percent. These factors, combined with the season’s unusually slow start and limited remaining window before November, support trader consensus that a Category 4 landfall in the continental United States before 2027 remains unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,802Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now confirmed and intensifying through the peak August–October period, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, suppressing storm formation and rapid intensification. As of late August 2026, the season has produced just three named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at only 3 percent of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season, with 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected and U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities estimated at 17–24 percent, far under the historical average near 43 percent. These factors, combined with the season’s unusually slow start and limited remaining window before November, support trader consensus that a Category 4 landfall in the continental United States before 2027 remains unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,802Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, now confirmed and intensifying through the peak August–October period, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, suppressing storm formation and rapid intensification. As of late August 2026, the season has produced just three named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at only 3 percent of the long-term median. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project a well-below-normal season, with 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) expected and U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities estimated at 17–24 percent, far under the historical average near 43 percent. These factors, combined with the season’s unusually slow start and limited remaining window before November, support trader consensus that a Category 4 landfall in the continental United States before 2027 remains unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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