Recent low winter maximum and spring extents—tied for record lows near 14.29 million km² in March 2026 and ranking among the lowest through July at 6.62 million km²—have established thin, vulnerable ice cover that favors a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range. Trader consensus clusters here because continued above-average melt rates, driven by early-season warm air intrusions and reduced albedo, align with NSIDC and model baselines, yet substantial uncertainty remains from August–September weather variability, including potential cyclones or high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or slow final retreat. Official forecasts project values near 4.5 million km², but divergent model runs and historical analogs underscore how regional wind and temperature anomalies will determine whether the outcome shifts toward 4.2–4.4 or holds higher.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.6-4.8m sq km 28.4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.2%
4.2-4.4m sq km 23.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 17.3%
$66,635 Vol.
$66,635 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
12%
4.0-4.2m sq km
17%
4.2-4.4m sq km
24%
4.4-4.6m sq km
28%
4.6-4.8m sq km
28%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
3%
4.6-4.8m sq km 28.4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.2%
4.2-4.4m sq km 23.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 17.3%
$66,635 Vol.
$66,635 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,295 Vol.
12%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,497 Vol.
17%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,846 Vol.
24%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,047 Vol.
28%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,757 Vol.
28%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,809 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$14,385 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum and spring extents—tied for record lows near 14.29 million km² in March 2026 and ranking among the lowest through July at 6.62 million km²—have established thin, vulnerable ice cover that favors a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range. Trader consensus clusters here because continued above-average melt rates, driven by early-season warm air intrusions and reduced albedo, align with NSIDC and model baselines, yet substantial uncertainty remains from August–September weather variability, including potential cyclones or high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or slow final retreat. Official forecasts project values near 4.5 million km², but divergent model runs and historical analogs underscore how regional wind and temperature anomalies will determine whether the outcome shifts toward 4.2–4.4 or holds higher.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$66,635Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum and spring extents—tied for record lows near 14.29 million km² in March 2026 and ranking among the lowest through July at 6.62 million km²—have established thin, vulnerable ice cover that favors a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range. Trader consensus clusters here because continued above-average melt rates, driven by early-season warm air intrusions and reduced albedo, align with NSIDC and model baselines, yet substantial uncertainty remains from August–September weather variability, including potential cyclones or high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or slow final retreat. Official forecasts project values near 4.5 million km², but divergent model runs and historical analogs underscore how regional wind and temperature anomalies will determine whether the outcome shifts toward 4.2–4.4 or holds higher.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$66,635Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum and spring extents—tied for record lows near 14.29 million km² in March 2026 and ranking among the lowest through July at 6.62 million km²—have established thin, vulnerable ice cover that favors a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range. Trader consensus clusters here because continued above-average melt rates, driven by early-season warm air intrusions and reduced albedo, align with NSIDC and model baselines, yet substantial uncertainty remains from August–September weather variability, including potential cyclones or high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or slow final retreat. Official forecasts project values near 4.5 million km², but divergent model runs and historical analogs underscore how regional wind and temperature anomalies will determine whether the outcome shifts toward 4.2–4.4 or holds higher.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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