Trader consensus strongly favors no VEI ≥6 eruption occurring in 2026, reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for that outcome. This positioning stems from the historical rarity of such events—only a few have taken place worldwide in the past several centuries—combined with ongoing global seismic and gas-monitoring data from agencies such as the USGS that show no current large-scale magma mobilization or caldera unrest at known high-risk systems. Continuous surveillance of candidates like Yellowstone and Taupo reveals typical background activity levels without the accelerating precursors needed for rapid escalation to VEI 6 or higher within the remaining months of the year. While an unexpected surge in unrest at a monitored volcano could still shift the outlook, the short remaining timeframe and established eruption frequencies keep the probability of such a development low.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$80,369 Vol.
$80,369 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$80,369 Vol.
$80,369 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors no VEI ≥6 eruption occurring in 2026, reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for that outcome. This positioning stems from the historical rarity of such events—only a few have taken place worldwide in the past several centuries—combined with ongoing global seismic and gas-monitoring data from agencies such as the USGS that show no current large-scale magma mobilization or caldera unrest at known high-risk systems. Continuous surveillance of candidates like Yellowstone and Taupo reveals typical background activity levels without the accelerating precursors needed for rapid escalation to VEI 6 or higher within the remaining months of the year. While an unexpected surge in unrest at a monitored volcano could still shift the outlook, the short remaining timeframe and established eruption frequencies keep the probability of such a development low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$80,369Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors no VEI ≥6 eruption occurring in 2026, reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for that outcome. This positioning stems from the historical rarity of such events—only a few have taken place worldwide in the past several centuries—combined with ongoing global seismic and gas-monitoring data from agencies such as the USGS that show no current large-scale magma mobilization or caldera unrest at known high-risk systems. Continuous surveillance of candidates like Yellowstone and Taupo reveals typical background activity levels without the accelerating precursors needed for rapid escalation to VEI 6 or higher within the remaining months of the year. While an unexpected surge in unrest at a monitored volcano could still shift the outlook, the short remaining timeframe and established eruption frequencies keep the probability of such a development low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$80,369Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no VEI ≥6 eruption occurring in 2026, reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for that outcome. This positioning stems from the historical rarity of such events—only a few have taken place worldwide in the past several centuries—combined with ongoing global seismic and gas-monitoring data from agencies such as the USGS that show no current large-scale magma mobilization or caldera unrest at known high-risk systems. Continuous surveillance of candidates like Yellowstone and Taupo reveals typical background activity levels without the accelerating precursors needed for rapid escalation to VEI 6 or higher within the remaining months of the year. While an unexpected surge in unrest at a monitored volcano could still shift the outlook, the short remaining timeframe and established eruption frequencies keep the probability of such a development low.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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