The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's crustal mechanics. The largest instrumentally recorded event reached only 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile earthquake, and USGS data confirm no global fault segments possess the length, width, or slip potential to generate a 10.0 within the remaining months. Current seismic monitoring shows typical background activity with no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences capable of scaling to that threshold. While rare multi-fault ruptures or undetected megathrusts remain theoretically possible, historical frequency patterns and plate tectonics models indicate such outcomes fall well below 1% probability in this brief window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update10.0 o sa itaas lindol bago 2027?
10.0 o sa itaas lindol bago 2027?
<1% tsansa
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% tsansa
$789,825 Vol.
$789,825 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's crustal mechanics. The largest instrumentally recorded event reached only 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile earthquake, and USGS data confirm no global fault segments possess the length, width, or slip potential to generate a 10.0 within the remaining months. Current seismic monitoring shows typical background activity with no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences capable of scaling to that threshold. While rare multi-fault ruptures or undetected megathrusts remain theoretically possible, historical frequency patterns and plate tectonics models indicate such outcomes fall well below 1% probability in this brief window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$789,825Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's crustal mechanics. The largest instrumentally recorded event reached only 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile earthquake, and USGS data confirm no global fault segments possess the length, width, or slip potential to generate a 10.0 within the remaining months. Current seismic monitoring shows typical background activity with no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences capable of scaling to that threshold. While rare multi-fault ruptures or undetected megathrusts remain theoretically possible, historical frequency patterns and plate tectonics models indicate such outcomes fall well below 1% probability in this brief window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$789,825Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's crustal mechanics. The largest instrumentally recorded event reached only 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile earthquake, and USGS data confirm no global fault segments possess the length, width, or slip potential to generate a 10.0 within the remaining months. Current seismic monitoring shows typical background activity with no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences capable of scaling to that threshold. While rare multi-fault ruptures or undetected megathrusts remain theoretically possible, historical frequency patterns and plate tectonics models indicate such outcomes fall well below 1% probability in this brief window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong