Official records from Météo-France and the Copernicus Climate Change Service confirm summer 2026 as France’s hottest on record since 1900, with a national average of 24°C that crushed the 2003 benchmark by nearly a full degree amid repeated heatwaves and exceptional persistence. This data release in early September, reinforced by Western Europe-wide verification on October 2, drove the market’s near-certain 99.4% consensus on the “Yes” outcome. Traders see little room for reversal given finalized seasonal metrics and historical precedent for record stability. A realistic upset would require a major post-season reanalysis or redefined “summer” criteria, though both remain improbable given the scale of the anomaly and multiple independent confirmations.