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icon for Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?

Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?

icon for Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?

Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

5-6 47%

<5 42%

7-8 5.5%

11-12 2.8%

Polymarket

$513,130 Vol.

5-6 47%

<5 42%

7-8 5.5%

11-12 2.8%

Polymarket

$513,130 Vol.

<5

$102,744 Vol.

39%

5-6

$117,333 Vol.

47%

7-8

$161,650 Vol.

6%

9-10

$63,394 Vol.

<1%

11-12

$10,325 Vol.

3%

13-14

$11,020 Vol.

<1%

15-16

$32,047 Vol.

<1%

>16

$14,618 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,130
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's measured Starship testing cadence, with just two V3 flights completed through mid-September 2026, anchors trader expectations around five or six total launches reaching space this year. Flight 13 in July successfully deployed production Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated an in-space Raptor relight, yet the booster suffered a hard splashdown after engine-relight issues. The upcoming Flight 14, now targeted for September 22 with FAA clearance, marks the first orbital attempt at roughly 275 km altitude and six orbits while carrying 26 operational V3 satellites, following hardware fixes for ice clogging and heat-shield upgrades. Remaining regulatory approvals, booster recovery challenges, and the absence of rapid-reuse infrastructure continue to constrain higher flight rates before year-end, keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered on modest totals.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,130
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 8 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "5-6" sa 47%, sinusundan ng "<5" sa 39%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 47¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 47% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $513.1K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Dec 11, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?," i-browse ang 8 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?" ay "5-6" sa 47%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 47% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "<5" sa 39%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Gaano karaming mga paglulunsad ng SpaceX Starship ang umaabot sa espasyo sa 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.