NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact in 2026, anchoring the market’s 91.8 percent “No” consensus. Comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly all objects in the relevant 10–20 meter size range well in advance, while routine Sentry model runs show cumulative collision probability remaining negligible through year-end. Historical frequency—roughly one such event globally every several decades—further reinforces trader conviction absent fresh detections. The sole realistic pathway for a meaningful shift would be identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide in the coming months, though ongoing infrared and optical monitoring continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact in 2026, anchoring the market’s 91.8 percent “No” consensus. Comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly all objects in the relevant 10–20 meter size range well in advance, while routine Sentry model runs show cumulative collision probability remaining negligible through year-end. Historical frequency—roughly one such event globally every several decades—further reinforces trader conviction absent fresh detections. The sole realistic pathway for a meaningful shift would be identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide in the coming months, though ongoing infrared and optical monitoring continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,235Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact in 2026, anchoring the market’s 91.8 percent “No” consensus. Comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly all objects in the relevant 10–20 meter size range well in advance, while routine Sentry model runs show cumulative collision probability remaining negligible through year-end. Historical frequency—roughly one such event globally every several decades—further reinforces trader conviction absent fresh detections. The sole realistic pathway for a meaningful shift would be identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide in the coming months, though ongoing infrared and optical monitoring continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,235Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact in 2026, anchoring the market’s 91.8 percent “No” consensus. Comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly all objects in the relevant 10–20 meter size range well in advance, while routine Sentry model runs show cumulative collision probability remaining negligible through year-end. Historical frequency—roughly one such event globally every several decades—further reinforces trader conviction absent fresh detections. The sole realistic pathway for a meaningful shift would be identification of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide in the coming months, though ongoing infrared and optical monitoring continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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