**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through mid-September 2026 and the lack of catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce that energy on a collision trajectory.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring continue to show zero objects on Sentry risk lists capable of a 5 kt airburst this year, while recent small predicted impactors such as 2026 RW1 (~1 m) released far less energy. Historical bolide records indicate events at or above this threshold occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, but with roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without detection, the remaining window narrows the implied probability. Traders weigh the ongoing fireball and bolide data feed against the low likelihood of an undetected decameter-scale object arriving before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% tsansa
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
27% tsansa
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through mid-September 2026 and the lack of catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce that energy on a collision trajectory.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring continue to show zero objects on Sentry risk lists capable of a 5 kt airburst this year, while recent small predicted impactors such as 2026 RW1 (~1 m) released far less energy. Historical bolide records indicate events at or above this threshold occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, but with roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without detection, the remaining window narrows the implied probability. Traders weigh the ongoing fireball and bolide data feed against the low likelihood of an undetected decameter-scale object arriving before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,099Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through mid-September 2026 and the lack of catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce that energy on a collision trajectory.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring continue to show zero objects on Sentry risk lists capable of a 5 kt airburst this year, while recent small predicted impactors such as 2026 RW1 (~1 m) released far less energy. Historical bolide records indicate events at or above this threshold occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, but with roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without detection, the remaining window narrows the implied probability. Traders weigh the ongoing fireball and bolide data feed against the low likelihood of an undetected decameter-scale object arriving before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,099Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through mid-September 2026 and the lack of catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce that energy on a collision trajectory.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring continue to show zero objects on Sentry risk lists capable of a 5 kt airburst this year, while recent small predicted impactors such as 2026 RW1 (~1 m) released far less energy. Historical bolide records indicate events at or above this threshold occur roughly once every 1–2 years on average, but with roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without detection, the remaining window narrows the implied probability. Traders weigh the ongoing fireball and bolide data feed against the low likelihood of an undetected decameter-scale object arriving before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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