**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥5 kt airburst in 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026.** No known objects in the risk tables carry impact probabilities or sizes that would meet the threshold, with potential close approaches limited to much smaller meter-scale bodies. Historical bolide records from the CTBTO infrasound network and NASA JPL Fireball repository show 5 kt-class events occur only sporadically—on multi-year timescales on average—rather than annually. Recent confirmed or predicted impacts in 2026, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects releasing energies well below the 5 kt level. Ongoing surveillance has not identified new threats, keeping the market-implied odds aligned with low base-rate expectations for the remainder of the year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% tsansa
$313,946 Vol.
$313,946 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
26% tsansa
$313,946 Vol.
$313,946 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥5 kt airburst in 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026.**
No known objects in the risk tables carry impact probabilities or sizes that would meet the threshold, with potential close approaches limited to much smaller meter-scale bodies. Historical bolide records from the CTBTO infrasound network and NASA JPL Fireball repository show 5 kt-class events occur only sporadically—on multi-year timescales on average—rather than annually. Recent confirmed or predicted impacts in 2026, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects releasing energies well below the 5 kt level. Ongoing surveillance has not identified new threats, keeping the market-implied odds aligned with low base-rate expectations for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$313,946Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥5 kt airburst in 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026.**
No known objects in the risk tables carry impact probabilities or sizes that would meet the threshold, with potential close approaches limited to much smaller meter-scale bodies. Historical bolide records from the CTBTO infrasound network and NASA JPL Fireball repository show 5 kt-class events occur only sporadically—on multi-year timescales on average—rather than annually. Recent confirmed or predicted impacts in 2026, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects releasing energies well below the 5 kt level. Ongoing surveillance has not identified new threats, keeping the market-implied odds aligned with low base-rate expectations for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$313,946Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 73.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥5 kt airburst in 2026, per NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026.** No known objects in the risk tables carry impact probabilities or sizes that would meet the threshold, with potential close approaches limited to much smaller meter-scale bodies. Historical bolide records from the CTBTO infrasound network and NASA JPL Fireball repository show 5 kt-class events occur only sporadically—on multi-year timescales on average—rather than annually. Recent confirmed or predicted impacts in 2026, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects releasing energies well below the 5 kt level. Ongoing surveillance has not identified new threats, keeping the market-implied odds aligned with low base-rate expectations for the remainder of the year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong