Strong El Niño conditions, with record Pacific warmth generating persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, have suppressed the 2026 season to near-record lows. As of mid-September, only five tropical storms have formed, zero hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 4% of the long-term average. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project at most 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991–2020 norm of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coast remain historically rare, with the last occurring in 2018, and current steering patterns plus limited remaining peak-season window further reduce the already slim odds. Late-season model runs showing any reversal would need sustained favorable thermodynamics unlikely under the present ENSO state.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
3% tsansa
$142,081 Vol.
$142,081 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% tsansa
$142,081 Vol.
$142,081 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, with record Pacific warmth generating persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, have suppressed the 2026 season to near-record lows. As of mid-September, only five tropical storms have formed, zero hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 4% of the long-term average. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project at most 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991–2020 norm of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coast remain historically rare, with the last occurring in 2018, and current steering patterns plus limited remaining peak-season window further reduce the already slim odds. Late-season model runs showing any reversal would need sustained favorable thermodynamics unlikely under the present ENSO state.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$142,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, with record Pacific warmth generating persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, have suppressed the 2026 season to near-record lows. As of mid-September, only five tropical storms have formed, zero hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 4% of the long-term average. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project at most 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991–2020 norm of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coast remain historically rare, with the last occurring in 2018, and current steering patterns plus limited remaining peak-season window further reduce the already slim odds. Late-season model runs showing any reversal would need sustained favorable thermodynamics unlikely under the present ENSO state.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$142,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, with record Pacific warmth generating persistent high wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, have suppressed the 2026 season to near-record lows. As of mid-September, only five tropical storms have formed, zero hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy stands at roughly 4% of the long-term average. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project at most 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season, well below the 1991–2020 norm of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coast remain historically rare, with the last occurring in 2018, and current steering patterns plus limited remaining peak-season window further reduce the already slim odds. Late-season model runs showing any reversal would need sustained favorable thermodynamics unlikely under the present ENSO state.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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