Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at roughly 60% implied probability, driven by the historical average of only about 0.6 such events annually worldwide and the complete absence of qualifying activity through mid-May. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds rarely crossed even during elevated unrest. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring shows 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, with brief ash plumes and ongoing activity at sites like Dukono, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira falling well below resolution criteria. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at these systems could produce a sudden escalation, though current data and model runs indicate low near-term risk of crossing into VEI 4 territory before year-end monitoring updates arrive.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIlang malaking pagsabog ng bulkan (VEI ≥4) sa 2026?
Ilang malaking pagsabog ng bulkan (VEI ≥4) sa 2026?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.1%
$1,078,891 Vol.
$1,078,891 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.1%
$1,078,891 Vol.
$1,078,891 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,303 Vol.
60%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,240 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at roughly 60% implied probability, driven by the historical average of only about 0.6 such events annually worldwide and the complete absence of qualifying activity through mid-May. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds rarely crossed even during elevated unrest. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring shows 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, with brief ash plumes and ongoing activity at sites like Dukono, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira falling well below resolution criteria. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at these systems could produce a sudden escalation, though current data and model runs indicate low near-term risk of crossing into VEI 4 territory before year-end monitoring updates arrive.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,078,891Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at roughly 60% implied probability, driven by the historical average of only about 0.6 such events annually worldwide and the complete absence of qualifying activity through mid-May. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds rarely crossed even during elevated unrest. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring shows 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, with brief ash plumes and ongoing activity at sites like Dukono, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira falling well below resolution criteria. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at these systems could produce a sudden escalation, though current data and model runs indicate low near-term risk of crossing into VEI 4 territory before year-end monitoring updates arrive.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,078,891Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at roughly 60% implied probability, driven by the historical average of only about 0.6 such events annually worldwide and the complete absence of qualifying activity through mid-May. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra with plume heights exceeding 10 km, thresholds rarely crossed even during elevated unrest. Smithsonian and USGS monitoring shows 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, with brief ash plumes and ongoing activity at sites like Dukono, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira falling well below resolution criteria. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at these systems could produce a sudden escalation, though current data and model runs indicate low near-term risk of crossing into VEI 4 territory before year-end monitoring updates arrive.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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