Global seismicity data from the USGS show five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, placing the annual pace near the long-term average of roughly 16 events. This early cluster along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones underpins the leading 14–16 outcome at 30.5% implied probability. A subsequent multi-week lull since late April has narrowed the gap with the 11–13 bin at 26%, reflecting traders’ assessment of Poisson-distributed variability in tectonic stress release. No unusual foreshock activity or model shifts appear in current monitoring, leaving the final count sensitive to late-year activity on major faults. Continuous USGS catalog updates through December will refine resolution thresholds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIlan ang 7.0 o higit pang mga lindol sa 2026?
14–16 31%
11–13 27%
17–19 21%
20+ 9.6%
$1,305,312 Vol.
$1,305,312 Vol.
5–7
1%
8–10
9%
11–13
27%
14–16
31%
17–19
21%
20+
10%
14–16 31%
11–13 27%
17–19 21%
20+ 9.6%
$1,305,312 Vol.
$1,305,312 Vol.
5–7
1%
8–10
9%
11–13
27%
14–16
31%
17–19
21%
20+
10%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global seismicity data from the USGS show five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, placing the annual pace near the long-term average of roughly 16 events. This early cluster along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones underpins the leading 14–16 outcome at 30.5% implied probability. A subsequent multi-week lull since late April has narrowed the gap with the 11–13 bin at 26%, reflecting traders’ assessment of Poisson-distributed variability in tectonic stress release. No unusual foreshock activity or model shifts appear in current monitoring, leaving the final count sensitive to late-year activity on major faults. Continuous USGS catalog updates through December will refine resolution thresholds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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