Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
38°C 46%
39°C 30%
37°C 17%
40°C 5%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
5%
37°C
17%
38°C
46%
39°C
30%
40°C
5%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 46%
39°C 30%
37°C 17%
40°C 5%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
$192 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$267 Vol.
1%
36°C
$248 Vol.
5%
37°C
$436 Vol.
17%
38°C
$421 Vol.
46%
39°C
$689 Vol.
30%
40°C
$294 Vol.
5%
41°C
$175 Vol.
1%
42°C
$17 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$179 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,517Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,517Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 18 because medium-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming, with daytime maxima projected near 38°C. Historical August climatology shows Madrid’s mean daily maximum around 33–35°C, yet recent model runs highlight the potential for 1–2°C above-normal anomalies under the current pattern. Urban heat-island effects and low soil moisture from the ongoing summer further support elevated readings. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible afternoon convection or slight shifts in the subtropical ridge, keeping 37°C and 40°C outcomes in play but at lower implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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