**Strong southerly winds and a recent influx of cooler polar maritime air are the dominant factors pinning trader consensus on a 10°C high for Wellington on August 16.** Official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models (BBC, AccuWeather) converge on a daytime maximum of 8–10°C under persistent brisk-to-gale southerlies, with morning showers and limited insolation keeping temperatures suppressed. This aligns with the market’s 89.5% implied probability for 10°C and the modest 10.5% for 11°C. August climatology for Wellington shows an average high near 12–13°C, so current conditions represent a below-average episode driven by the recent Antarctic air mass that dropped overnight lows into the mid-single digits across the region. Model runs show little disagreement on the steering pattern, with no significant warm-air advection expected before the 16th. Traders appear to be weighting the latest high-resolution guidance and historical analogs for southerly outbreaks, which rarely allow temperatures to climb above 10°C under these setups. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService or NIWA maximum recorded at Wellington’s reference station.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 92%
11°C 7%
12°C <1%
4°C or below <1%
BAGO
$51,084 Vol.
BAGO
$51,084 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
92%
11°C
7%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 92%
11°C 7%
12°C <1%
4°C or below <1%
BAGO
$51,084 Vol.
BAGO
$51,084 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$763 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$907 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,049 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$3,612 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$4,657 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$25,727 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$6,702 Vol.
92%
11°C
$4,237 Vol.
7%
12°C
$2,311 Vol.
1%
13°C
$831 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southerly winds and a recent influx of cooler polar maritime air are the dominant factors pinning trader consensus on a 10°C high for Wellington on August 16.** Official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models (BBC, AccuWeather) converge on a daytime maximum of 8–10°C under persistent brisk-to-gale southerlies, with morning showers and limited insolation keeping temperatures suppressed. This aligns with the market’s 89.5% implied probability for 10°C and the modest 10.5% for 11°C.
August climatology for Wellington shows an average high near 12–13°C, so current conditions represent a below-average episode driven by the recent Antarctic air mass that dropped overnight lows into the mid-single digits across the region. Model runs show little disagreement on the steering pattern, with no significant warm-air advection expected before the 16th. Traders appear to be weighting the latest high-resolution guidance and historical analogs for southerly outbreaks, which rarely allow temperatures to climb above 10°C under these setups. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService or NIWA maximum recorded at Wellington’s reference station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$51,084Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southerly winds and a recent influx of cooler polar maritime air are the dominant factors pinning trader consensus on a 10°C high for Wellington on August 16.** Official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models (BBC, AccuWeather) converge on a daytime maximum of 8–10°C under persistent brisk-to-gale southerlies, with morning showers and limited insolation keeping temperatures suppressed. This aligns with the market’s 89.5% implied probability for 10°C and the modest 10.5% for 11°C.
August climatology for Wellington shows an average high near 12–13°C, so current conditions represent a below-average episode driven by the recent Antarctic air mass that dropped overnight lows into the mid-single digits across the region. Model runs show little disagreement on the steering pattern, with no significant warm-air advection expected before the 16th. Traders appear to be weighting the latest high-resolution guidance and historical analogs for southerly outbreaks, which rarely allow temperatures to climb above 10°C under these setups. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService or NIWA maximum recorded at Wellington’s reference station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,084Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong southerly winds and a recent influx of cooler polar maritime air are the dominant factors pinning trader consensus on a 10°C high for Wellington on August 16.** Official forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models (BBC, AccuWeather) converge on a daytime maximum of 8–10°C under persistent brisk-to-gale southerlies, with morning showers and limited insolation keeping temperatures suppressed. This aligns with the market’s 89.5% implied probability for 10°C and the modest 10.5% for 11°C. August climatology for Wellington shows an average high near 12–13°C, so current conditions represent a below-average episode driven by the recent Antarctic air mass that dropped overnight lows into the mid-single digits across the region. Model runs show little disagreement on the steering pattern, with no significant warm-air advection expected before the 16th. Traders appear to be weighting the latest high-resolution guidance and historical analogs for southerly outbreaks, which rarely allow temperatures to climb above 10°C under these setups. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService or NIWA maximum recorded at Wellington’s reference station.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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