The strong market consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the historical rarity of such megathrust events, which USGS records show occur globally fewer than once per decade on average. The most recent example was the 2011 Tohoku quake in Japan, following the 2004 Sumatra and 1964 Alaska events, with no comparable activity detected in major subduction zones since. Current seismic monitoring reveals only background seismicity without precursors such as accelerated strain release or foreshock swarms that would indicate imminent rupture along high-risk faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. While these zones retain long-term potential, the short remaining window sharply limits near-term probability, though any sudden model update from USGS or international networks could introduce new uncertainty.