Recent Starship test flights, including the successful July 2026 Flight 13 with V3 hardware, intact upper-stage splashdown, Starlink V3 satellite deployment, and Raptor relights, have bolstered trader confidence in rapid progress toward full reusability. SpaceX plans Flight 14 in late August or September 2026 to attempt the first orbital mission plus tower catch of the upper stage, building on prior booster returns. Elon Musk has expressed high confidence that the V3 design will enable both stages to return, catch, and reuse quickly. Persistent technical challenges around heat-shield durability, inspection turnaround, and regulatory approvals for frequent launches introduce uncertainty, keeping the market-implied odds near even as traders weigh these near-term catalysts against historical timeline slips.