Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 68.5% implied probability primarily because it is advancing toward a potential November 2026 IPO targeting above $2 trillion, while OpenAI has delayed its public debut to 2027 citing AI safety priorities and is instead pursuing a $30 billion bridge round at roughly $1.4 trillion pre-money. Anthropic’s May 2026 private valuation reached $965 billion on a revenue run rate that climbed to around $65 billion by July, outpacing OpenAI’s $852 billion March mark despite both firms reporting rapid growth and heavy compute commitments exceeding $500 billion. OpenAI’s annualized revenue has approached $70 billion with strong enterprise gains, yet its later timeline and lower current private valuation create a clear gap in expected closing market caps. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s post-midterm pricing and any updates on OpenAI’s financing terms or safety-driven schedule.