Milei's inflation-linked crawling band regime, which adjusts the peso's trading range monthly to lagged CPI readings, anchors trader expectations for the official USD/ARS rate at year-end 2026. With the spot rate near 1,490 and annualized inflation holding around 30-33 percent amid 2-3 percent monthly prints, the band is projected to expand at a pace that supports modest depreciation rather than sharp adjustment. Reserve-rebuilding purchases, external debt maturities totaling nearly $20 billion, and continued fiscal discipline under the current framework limit upside volatility in the rate, while any reacceleration in price pressures or delays in reserve accumulation could widen the range toward the 1,600-1,700 zone. The tight split between sub-1,600 and 1,600-1,699.99 brackets captures uncertainty over the pace of disinflation and the central bank's willingness to defend the upper band through intervention.