**The Cuban Communist Party leadership under President Miguel Díaz-Canel and Raúl Castro maintains institutional continuity amid acute economic strain.** Severe fuel shortages and rolling blackouts up to 20 hours daily have persisted following the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies after Maduro’s ouster earlier in 2026, compounded by intensified U.S. sanctions. In response, the government has advanced a package of economic and social transformations—over 110 measures approved by mid-2026—to expand the private sector, decentralize some functions, and stabilize supplies without altering the one-party system. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have described Cuba as a “failed state” economically and called for a political transition, yet no major internal fractures, leadership vacuums, or opposition momentum have materialized to threaten regime survival through year-end. Traders price the low probability of collapse accordingly, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated capacity to absorb pressure through controlled reforms and security structures.