The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, alongside the suppression of nationwide protests that began in December 2025, underpins the strong trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Succession passed rapidly to Mojtaba Khamenei, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus remaining cohesive and loyal despite leadership losses and infrastructure damage. Ongoing U.S. sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and economic strains have not yet triggered elite fragmentation or mass defections capable of overturning the system in the short term. Recent assessments highlight the regime's adaptation to these shocks, including tightened internal controls and continued institutional functioning, as factors sustaining stability through year-end.