The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 domestic unrest and external strikes supports the 93.5% trader consensus that it will not collapse before 2027. Protests triggered by economic hardship and currency devaluation in December 2025 were contained by January 2026 via security operations, internet controls, and arrests, with no widespread military defections. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured armed forces commands, and quelled subsequent unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional coordination reflect institutional continuity despite sanctions and inflation, absent verified indicators of imminent overthrow within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
7% tsansa
$24,758,517 Vol.
$24,758,517 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oo
7% tsansa
$24,758,517 Vol.
$24,758,517 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 domestic unrest and external strikes supports the 93.5% trader consensus that it will not collapse before 2027. Protests triggered by economic hardship and currency devaluation in December 2025 were contained by January 2026 via security operations, internet controls, and arrests, with no widespread military defections. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured armed forces commands, and quelled subsequent unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional coordination reflect institutional continuity despite sanctions and inflation, absent verified indicators of imminent overthrow within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$24,758,517Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 domestic unrest and external strikes supports the 93.5% trader consensus that it will not collapse before 2027. Protests triggered by economic hardship and currency devaluation in December 2025 were contained by January 2026 via security operations, internet controls, and arrests, with no widespread military defections. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured armed forces commands, and quelled subsequent unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional coordination reflect institutional continuity despite sanctions and inflation, absent verified indicators of imminent overthrow within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,758,517Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 domestic unrest and external strikes supports the 93.5% trader consensus that it will not collapse before 2027. Protests triggered by economic hardship and currency devaluation in December 2025 were contained by January 2026 via security operations, internet controls, and arrests, with no widespread military defections. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime installed Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured armed forces commands, and quelled subsequent unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional coordination reflect institutional continuity despite sanctions and inflation, absent verified indicators of imminent overthrow within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong