US officials have shown consistent reluctance to recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader, with President Trump publicly describing him as a "nice" person while questioning whether Iranians inside the country would accept his leadership and indicating preference for figures emerging from within. Recent US-Iran understandings have emphasized respect for sovereignty without reference to opposition figures assuming power. Pahlavi's positioning as a transitional leader amid protests and leadership changes has not produced formal endorsement or diplomatic steps. Traders' 96.2% probability on no recognition reflects this absence of policy signals. Even with ongoing unrest or Pahlavi's outreach, scenarios such as a verified regime transition aligning with US interests or an explicit administration pivot could still alter the outcome before year-end.