**Recent diplomatic signals point to an imminent US-Iran agreement that could lift the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent operational and security hurdles keep normalization by July 15 closely contested at 54.5% Yes.** The strait has seen traffic at roughly 1-5% of pre-February 2026 levels since Iran’s military actions amid the broader conflict, with only minimal transits recorded in mid-June despite limited US-assisted passages. Trump’s June 14 announcement of a finalized deal, including immediate reopening and removal of the naval blockade, followed earlier signals of a memorandum covering the waterway and sanctions relief. Iranian statements have shown caution on timing, and a June 11 closure order in response to strikes underscores the risk of reversals, as seen after the brief April reopening. Key variables for the next month include confirmation of the expected signing, rapid de-escalation sufficient to restore insurance coverage and commercial routing, and clearance of backlogged vessels without new incidents. A verified, sustained increase in daily transits could strengthen Yes positioning, while any delay, renewed threats, or slow operator return could favor No. The tight odds reflect trader assessment of both the momentum toward resolution and the practical barriers to full normalization within the tight window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
BAGO
$195,658 Vol.
BAGO
$195,658 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
BAGO
$195,658 Vol.
BAGO
$195,658 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent diplomatic signals point to an imminent US-Iran agreement that could lift the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent operational and security hurdles keep normalization by July 15 closely contested at 54.5% Yes.**
The strait has seen traffic at roughly 1-5% of pre-February 2026 levels since Iran’s military actions amid the broader conflict, with only minimal transits recorded in mid-June despite limited US-assisted passages. Trump’s June 14 announcement of a finalized deal, including immediate reopening and removal of the naval blockade, followed earlier signals of a memorandum covering the waterway and sanctions relief. Iranian statements have shown caution on timing, and a June 11 closure order in response to strikes underscores the risk of reversals, as seen after the brief April reopening.
Key variables for the next month include confirmation of the expected signing, rapid de-escalation sufficient to restore insurance coverage and commercial routing, and clearance of backlogged vessels without new incidents. A verified, sustained increase in daily transits could strengthen Yes positioning, while any delay, renewed threats, or slow operator return could favor No. The tight odds reflect trader assessment of both the momentum toward resolution and the practical barriers to full normalization within the tight window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$195,658Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent diplomatic signals point to an imminent US-Iran agreement that could lift the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent operational and security hurdles keep normalization by July 15 closely contested at 54.5% Yes.**
The strait has seen traffic at roughly 1-5% of pre-February 2026 levels since Iran’s military actions amid the broader conflict, with only minimal transits recorded in mid-June despite limited US-assisted passages. Trump’s June 14 announcement of a finalized deal, including immediate reopening and removal of the naval blockade, followed earlier signals of a memorandum covering the waterway and sanctions relief. Iranian statements have shown caution on timing, and a June 11 closure order in response to strikes underscores the risk of reversals, as seen after the brief April reopening.
Key variables for the next month include confirmation of the expected signing, rapid de-escalation sufficient to restore insurance coverage and commercial routing, and clearance of backlogged vessels without new incidents. A verified, sustained increase in daily transits could strengthen Yes positioning, while any delay, renewed threats, or slow operator return could favor No. The tight odds reflect trader assessment of both the momentum toward resolution and the practical barriers to full normalization within the tight window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$196,416Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent diplomatic signals point to an imminent US-Iran agreement that could lift the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent operational and security hurdles keep normalization by July 15 closely contested at 54.5% Yes.** The strait has seen traffic at roughly 1-5% of pre-February 2026 levels since Iran’s military actions amid the broader conflict, with only minimal transits recorded in mid-June despite limited US-assisted passages. Trump’s June 14 announcement of a finalized deal, including immediate reopening and removal of the naval blockade, followed earlier signals of a memorandum covering the waterway and sanctions relief. Iranian statements have shown caution on timing, and a June 11 closure order in response to strikes underscores the risk of reversals, as seen after the brief April reopening. Key variables for the next month include confirmation of the expected signing, rapid de-escalation sufficient to restore insurance coverage and commercial routing, and clearance of backlogged vessels without new incidents. A verified, sustained increase in daily transits could strengthen Yes positioning, while any delay, renewed threats, or slow operator return could favor No. The tight odds reflect trader assessment of both the momentum toward resolution and the practical barriers to full normalization within the tight window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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