Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits near historic lows since late February 2026, with daily commercial ship movements averaging well below 10 amid Iranian restrictions, attacks on vessels, and widespread rerouting. Recent U.S. naval coordination has enabled limited “dark” passages—Trump noted over 200 assisted ships carrying 100 million barrels in the prior month—while tanker operators report a modest uptick to five-to-10 daily transits via Iranian or Omani routes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether accelerating diplomacy or expanded escorts can lift the average toward the 20-40 range by June 30, versus persistence near current depressed levels; oil tanker stocks, freight rates, and energy benchmarks price in the same swing factors of de-escalation timelines and enforcement capacity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
0-10 33%
20-40 28%
10-20 15%
40-60 13.9%
$58,662 Vol.
$58,662 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
0-10
33%
10-20
15%
20-40
28%
40-60
14%
60+
11%
0-10 33%
20-40 28%
10-20 15%
40-60 13.9%
$58,662 Vol.
$58,662 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
0-10
$24,026 Vol.
33%
10-20
$6,257 Vol.
15%
20-40
$6,085 Vol.
28%
40-60
$6,458 Vol.
14%
60+
$15,835 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits near historic lows since late February 2026, with daily commercial ship movements averaging well below 10 amid Iranian restrictions, attacks on vessels, and widespread rerouting. Recent U.S. naval coordination has enabled limited “dark” passages—Trump noted over 200 assisted ships carrying 100 million barrels in the prior month—while tanker operators report a modest uptick to five-to-10 daily transits via Iranian or Omani routes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether accelerating diplomacy or expanded escorts can lift the average toward the 20-40 range by June 30, versus persistence near current depressed levels; oil tanker stocks, freight rates, and energy benchmarks price in the same swing factors of de-escalation timelines and enforcement capacity.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$58,662Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits near historic lows since late February 2026, with daily commercial ship movements averaging well below 10 amid Iranian restrictions, attacks on vessels, and widespread rerouting. Recent U.S. naval coordination has enabled limited “dark” passages—Trump noted over 200 assisted ships carrying 100 million barrels in the prior month—while tanker operators report a modest uptick to five-to-10 daily transits via Iranian or Omani routes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether accelerating diplomacy or expanded escorts can lift the average toward the 20-40 range by June 30, versus persistence near current depressed levels; oil tanker stocks, freight rates, and energy benchmarks price in the same swing factors of de-escalation timelines and enforcement capacity.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$58,662Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have kept Strait of Hormuz transits near historic lows since late February 2026, with daily commercial ship movements averaging well below 10 amid Iranian restrictions, attacks on vessels, and widespread rerouting. Recent U.S. naval coordination has enabled limited “dark” passages—Trump noted over 200 assisted ships carrying 100 million barrels in the prior month—while tanker operators report a modest uptick to five-to-10 daily transits via Iranian or Omani routes. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether accelerating diplomacy or expanded escorts can lift the average toward the 20-40 range by June 30, versus persistence near current depressed levels; oil tanker stocks, freight rates, and energy benchmarks price in the same swing factors of de-escalation timelines and enforcement capacity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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