Skip to main content
icon for Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mundo·Gitnang Silangan

Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

icon for Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mundo·Gitnang Silangan

Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 63.9%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.0%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,272,360 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 63.9%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.0%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,272,360 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,067,865 Vol.

64%

Reza Pahlavi

$206,220 Vol.

7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$227,966 Vol.

5%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado

$460,072 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$185,754 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$325,530 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$271,365 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$833,426 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$291,446 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$785,882 Vol.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$63,677 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$48,234 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$299,020 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$111,646 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$420,949 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$62,223 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,111 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$179,708 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$100,091 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$80,707 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$52,715 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,414 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$83,166 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$71,898 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,291 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,666 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a clear lead in trader assessments for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his unanimous selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February. His established networks within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij forces, along with years of behind-the-scenes influence in the Supreme Leader's office, provide institutional continuity amid ongoing regional conflict. Other listed contenders, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics such as Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, remain distant because they lack comparable internal backing or face constitutional and political barriers. The current market pricing reflects uncertainty over whether Mojtaba can maintain power through year-end amid potential escalation, internal challenges, or shifts in the Assembly of Experts' composition, though his rapid consolidation of authority after the transition has anchored the implied probability near two-thirds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,272,360
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a clear lead in trader assessments for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his unanimous selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February. His established networks within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij forces, along with years of behind-the-scenes influence in the Supreme Leader's office, provide institutional continuity amid ongoing regional conflict. Other listed contenders, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics such as Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, remain distant because they lack comparable internal backing or face constitutional and political barriers. The current market pricing reflects uncertainty over whether Mojtaba can maintain power through year-end amid potential escalation, internal challenges, or shifts in the Assembly of Experts' composition, though his rapid consolidation of authority after the transition has anchored the implied probability near two-thirds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,272,360
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 32 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mojtaba Khamenei" sa 64%, sinusundan ng "Reza Pahlavi" sa 7%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 64¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 64% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $8.3 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Mar 1, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?," i-browse ang 32 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay "Mojtaba Khamenei" sa 64%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 64% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Reza Pahlavi" sa 7%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.