Mojtaba Khamenei leads with strong trader consensus after the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the latter’s assassination during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. The unanimous vote by the clerical body emphasized continuity of hardline governance and resistance to external pressure, sidelining interim figures such as Alireza Arafi and longer-shot reformist or opposition names. Recent August reports of Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and internal concerns over his health have introduced modest uncertainty about his ability to serve through year-end, yet the absence of any confirmed transition process or viable alternative keeps probabilities concentrated on the current supreme leader.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%
Walang Pinuno ng Estado 4.5%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
Alireza Arafi 2.4%
$38,617,967 Vol.
$38,617,967 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Walang Pinuno ng Estado
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
2%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%
Walang Pinuno ng Estado 4.5%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
Alireza Arafi 2.4%
$38,617,967 Vol.
$38,617,967 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Walang Pinuno ng Estado
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
2%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei leads with strong trader consensus after the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the latter’s assassination during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. The unanimous vote by the clerical body emphasized continuity of hardline governance and resistance to external pressure, sidelining interim figures such as Alireza Arafi and longer-shot reformist or opposition names. Recent August reports of Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and internal concerns over his health have introduced modest uncertainty about his ability to serve through year-end, yet the absence of any confirmed transition process or viable alternative keeps probabilities concentrated on the current supreme leader.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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