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icon for Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mundo·Gitnang Silangan

Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

icon for Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mundo·Gitnang Silangan

Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,617,967 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,617,967 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,027,200 Vol.

82%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado

$1,148,260 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,396 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,688 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,119,355 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,728 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,011 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,383 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,835 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$918,080 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,515 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,512 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$535,395 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,856 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,694 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,112 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,282 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,166 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$199,090 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,738 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,132 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,847 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,173 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,637 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,729 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,722 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,387 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,671 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,226 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads with strong trader consensus after the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the latter’s assassination during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. The unanimous vote by the clerical body emphasized continuity of hardline governance and resistance to external pressure, sidelining interim figures such as Alireza Arafi and longer-shot reformist or opposition names. Recent August reports of Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and internal concerns over his health have introduced modest uncertainty about his ability to serve through year-end, yet the absence of any confirmed transition process or viable alternative keeps probabilities concentrated on the current supreme leader.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,617,967
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads with strong trader consensus after the Assembly of Experts selected him in early March 2026 to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the latter’s assassination during the U.S.-Israel conflict that began in late February. The unanimous vote by the clerical body emphasized continuity of hardline governance and resistance to external pressure, sidelining interim figures such as Alireza Arafi and longer-shot reformist or opposition names. Recent August reports of Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and internal concerns over his health have introduced modest uncertainty about his ability to serve through year-end, yet the absence of any confirmed transition process or viable alternative keeps probabilities concentrated on the current supreme leader.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,617,967
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 32 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mojtaba Khamenei" sa 82%, sinusundan ng "Walang Pinuno ng Estado" sa 5%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 82¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 82% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $38.6 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 28, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?," i-browse ang 32 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay "Mojtaba Khamenei" sa 82%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 82% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Walang Pinuno ng Estado" sa 5%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.