Mojtaba Khamenei’s 88% implied probability stems from his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February strikes. Traders view this constitutional process, backed by IRGC influence and regime continuity, as establishing durable control over key institutions and decision-making through year-end. Recent developments include September reports of internal discussions about potential post-ceasefire replacement due to Mojtaba’s limited public appearances and alleged injuries, alongside handwritten statements and presidential assurances of his health. These signals have not materially altered consensus, as no alternative cleric or figure has gained traction within the clerical and security establishment. Low probabilities for opposition names like Reza Pahlavi reflect the entrenched theocratic structure and absence of near-term pathways to power shifts before December 31, 2026.