This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
May 9 2026
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Apr 25 2026
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Apr 15 2026
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Apr 8 2026
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Mar 28 2026
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Mar 27 2026
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Mar 23 2026
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
Mar 21 2026
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Mar 20 2026
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Mar 16 2026
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Mar 8 2026
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Mar 1 2026
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
Feb 28 2026
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
Feb 28 2026
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Feb 23 2026
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Feb 22 2026
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Feb 9 2026
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Jan 21 2026
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Jan 15 2026
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Jan 10 2026
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Jan 5 2026
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Dec 24 2025
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Dec 9 2025
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Nov 28 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Nov 23 2025
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Nov 22 2025
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Nov 19 2025
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Nov 9 2025
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
May 31 2025
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Feb 10 2025
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
May 9 2026
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Apr 25 2026
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Apr 15 2026
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Apr 8 2026
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Mar 28 2026
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Mar 27 2026
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Mar 23 2026
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
Mar 21 2026
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Mar 20 2026
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Mar 16 2026
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Mar 8 2026
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Mar 1 2026
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
Feb 28 2026
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
Feb 28 2026
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Feb 23 2026
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Feb 22 2026
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Feb 9 2026
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Jan 21 2026
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Jan 15 2026
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Jan 10 2026
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Jan 5 2026
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Dec 24 2025
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Dec 9 2025
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Nov 28 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Nov 23 2025
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Nov 22 2025
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Nov 19 2025
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Nov 9 2025
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
May 31 2025
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Feb 10 2025
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
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Mga Madalas na Tanong
Ang "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 16 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "5" sa 36%, sinusundan ng "4" sa 30%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 36¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 36% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $6.7 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 13, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?," i-browse ang 16 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" ay "5" sa 36%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 36% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "4" sa 30%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $6.7 million na na-trade sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 36¢ para sa "5" sa "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 36% na tsansa na ang "5" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 36¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 64¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" market ay naka-schedule na mag-resolve sa o bandang Dec 31, 2026. Ibig sabihin ang trading ay mananatiling bukas at patuloy na magbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon hanggang sa petsang iyon. Ang eksaktong timing ng resolution ay nakadepende sa kung kailan magiging available ang opisyal na resulta, gaya ng nakabalangkas sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.
Ang "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 512 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng "Gaano karaming iba 't ibang mga bansa ang sasalakayin ng Israel sa 2026?." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
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