Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated proxy threats from groups including Hezbollah and actors in Yemen have repeatedly prompted temporary or phased closures of Israeli civilian airspace in 2026, with multiple shutdowns and reopenings between February and July tied to missile and drone exchanges following U.S.-Israeli strikes. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA and other regulators continue to flag elevated risks that could trigger full or broad suspensions of commercial operations. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of short-notice halts during alerts, statements from Israeli transportation officials on security reviews, and the potential for rapid shifts driven by diplomatic signals or further strikes within any specified resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$27,023,864 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 31
6%
$27,023,864 Vol.
August 15
$977,234 Vol.
<1%
August 31
$1,023,446 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated proxy threats from groups including Hezbollah and actors in Yemen have repeatedly prompted temporary or phased closures of Israeli civilian airspace in 2026, with multiple shutdowns and reopenings between February and July tied to missile and drone exchanges following U.S.-Israeli strikes. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA and other regulators continue to flag elevated risks that could trigger full or broad suspensions of commercial operations. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of short-notice halts during alerts, statements from Israeli transportation officials on security reviews, and the potential for rapid shifts driven by diplomatic signals or further strikes within any specified resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$27,023,864Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated proxy threats from groups including Hezbollah and actors in Yemen have repeatedly prompted temporary or phased closures of Israeli civilian airspace in 2026, with multiple shutdowns and reopenings between February and July tied to missile and drone exchanges following U.S.-Israeli strikes. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA and other regulators continue to flag elevated risks that could trigger full or broad suspensions of commercial operations. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of short-notice halts during alerts, statements from Israeli transportation officials on security reviews, and the potential for rapid shifts driven by diplomatic signals or further strikes within any specified resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,023,864Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated proxy threats from groups including Hezbollah and actors in Yemen have repeatedly prompted temporary or phased closures of Israeli civilian airspace in 2026, with multiple shutdowns and reopenings between February and July tied to missile and drone exchanges following U.S.-Israeli strikes. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA and other regulators continue to flag elevated risks that could trigger full or broad suspensions of commercial operations. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of short-notice halts during alerts, statements from Israeli transportation officials on security reviews, and the potential for rapid shifts driven by diplomatic signals or further strikes within any specified resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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