Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR remains open in mid-August 2026 after repeated closures and reopenings earlier in the year tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s missile-drone responses. A July breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered fresh regional military activity, yet Israeli authorities have kept civilian operations running under heightened monitoring, with Ben-Gurion Airport handling limited flights. EASA warnings and carrier suspensions reflect persistent risks from Iranian proxies and potential short-notice threats. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to another broad closure by late August, reflecting the current operational status while tracking diplomatic signals, cross-border incidents, and any fresh Iranian or Hezbollah actions that could prompt temporary suspension of commercial aviation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$27,064,651 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 31
5%
$27,064,651 Vol.
August 15
$1,004,975 Vol.
<1%
August 31
$1,036,491 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR remains open in mid-August 2026 after repeated closures and reopenings earlier in the year tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s missile-drone responses. A July breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered fresh regional military activity, yet Israeli authorities have kept civilian operations running under heightened monitoring, with Ben-Gurion Airport handling limited flights. EASA warnings and carrier suspensions reflect persistent risks from Iranian proxies and potential short-notice threats. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to another broad closure by late August, reflecting the current operational status while tracking diplomatic signals, cross-border incidents, and any fresh Iranian or Hezbollah actions that could prompt temporary suspension of commercial aviation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$27,064,651Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR remains open in mid-August 2026 after repeated closures and reopenings earlier in the year tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s missile-drone responses. A July breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered fresh regional military activity, yet Israeli authorities have kept civilian operations running under heightened monitoring, with Ben-Gurion Airport handling limited flights. EASA warnings and carrier suspensions reflect persistent risks from Iranian proxies and potential short-notice threats. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to another broad closure by late August, reflecting the current operational status while tracking diplomatic signals, cross-border incidents, and any fresh Iranian or Hezbollah actions that could prompt temporary suspension of commercial aviation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,064,651Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR remains open in mid-August 2026 after repeated closures and reopenings earlier in the year tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s missile-drone responses. A July breakdown in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered fresh regional military activity, yet Israeli authorities have kept civilian operations running under heightened monitoring, with Ben-Gurion Airport handling limited flights. EASA warnings and carrier suspensions reflect persistent risks from Iranian proxies and potential short-notice threats. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to another broad closure by late August, reflecting the current operational status while tracking diplomatic signals, cross-border incidents, and any fresh Iranian or Hezbollah actions that could prompt temporary suspension of commercial aviation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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