Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by retaliatory missile and drone activity, prompted an immediate full closure of Israeli civilian airspace and Ben Gurion Airport operations. A temporary ceasefire announced in early April and extended through late April has held, allowing gradual reopening under strict security protocols while European aviation authorities extended flight advisories through late May 2026 due to persistent risks across multiple Middle East flight information regions. Major carriers have begun scheduling limited restarts for late May and early June, reflecting reduced acute threats but continued caution over potential escalation or proxy incidents. These factors shape trader assessments of whether renewed major closure becomes necessary by specific resolution dates, balancing the current de-escalatory trajectory against structural volatility in the region.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$880,767 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
31%
June 30
50%
$880,767 Vol.
May 31
$377,518 Vol.
31%
June 30
$8,017 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by retaliatory missile and drone activity, prompted an immediate full closure of Israeli civilian airspace and Ben Gurion Airport operations. A temporary ceasefire announced in early April and extended through late April has held, allowing gradual reopening under strict security protocols while European aviation authorities extended flight advisories through late May 2026 due to persistent risks across multiple Middle East flight information regions. Major carriers have begun scheduling limited restarts for late May and early June, reflecting reduced acute threats but continued caution over potential escalation or proxy incidents. These factors shape trader assessments of whether renewed major closure becomes necessary by specific resolution dates, balancing the current de-escalatory trajectory against structural volatility in the region.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$880,767Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by retaliatory missile and drone activity, prompted an immediate full closure of Israeli civilian airspace and Ben Gurion Airport operations. A temporary ceasefire announced in early April and extended through late April has held, allowing gradual reopening under strict security protocols while European aviation authorities extended flight advisories through late May 2026 due to persistent risks across multiple Middle East flight information regions. Major carriers have begun scheduling limited restarts for late May and early June, reflecting reduced acute threats but continued caution over potential escalation or proxy incidents. These factors shape trader assessments of whether renewed major closure becomes necessary by specific resolution dates, balancing the current de-escalatory trajectory against structural volatility in the region.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$880,767Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 followed by retaliatory missile and drone activity, prompted an immediate full closure of Israeli civilian airspace and Ben Gurion Airport operations. A temporary ceasefire announced in early April and extended through late April has held, allowing gradual reopening under strict security protocols while European aviation authorities extended flight advisories through late May 2026 due to persistent risks across multiple Middle East flight information regions. Major carriers have begun scheduling limited restarts for late May and early June, reflecting reduced acute threats but continued caution over potential escalation or proxy incidents. These factors shape trader assessments of whether renewed major closure becomes necessary by specific resolution dates, balancing the current de-escalatory trajectory against structural volatility in the region.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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