Ongoing maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial traffic to roughly 3-5% of pre-crisis levels as of early October. Recent tanker attacks by projectiles and drones, followed by U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and mutual ceasefire violations, have sustained elevated risk levels, with war-risk insurance premiums remaining around 15 times peacetime baselines and official threat assessments at substantial or severe. Iran’s assertions of control over designated corridors, combined with disputes over alternative Omani routes and failed attempts to stabilize the memorandum of understanding, have prevented any sustained recovery. These factors underpin trader consensus that full normalization of transits by December 31 remains unlikely amid persistent geopolitical friction.