Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping traffic returning to pre-conflict norms—around 100 vessels daily, including 80 oil tankers—by December 31, reflecting escalating economic pressures and diplomatic momentum amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Traffic persists at 5-10% of normal levels following April naval skirmishes and Iran's selective transit regime, exacerbating a 1 billion-barrel oil supply shock, surging freight costs (e.g., Hapag-Lloyd's $60 million weekly hit from rerouting), and WTI crude hovering near $101/bbl. Key catalysts include Secretary Rubio's push for Chinese mediation at this week's UN resolution condemning Iran, alongside stranded Asian vessels incentivizing de-escalation, though near-term volatility lingers until policy breakthroughs emerge.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$100,162 Vol.
$100,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$100,162 Vol.
$100,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping traffic returning to pre-conflict norms—around 100 vessels daily, including 80 oil tankers—by December 31, reflecting escalating economic pressures and diplomatic momentum amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Traffic persists at 5-10% of normal levels following April naval skirmishes and Iran's selective transit regime, exacerbating a 1 billion-barrel oil supply shock, surging freight costs (e.g., Hapag-Lloyd's $60 million weekly hit from rerouting), and WTI crude hovering near $101/bbl. Key catalysts include Secretary Rubio's push for Chinese mediation at this week's UN resolution condemning Iran, alongside stranded Asian vessels incentivizing de-escalation, though near-term volatility lingers until policy breakthroughs emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$100,162Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping traffic returning to pre-conflict norms—around 100 vessels daily, including 80 oil tankers—by December 31, reflecting escalating economic pressures and diplomatic momentum amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Traffic persists at 5-10% of normal levels following April naval skirmishes and Iran's selective transit regime, exacerbating a 1 billion-barrel oil supply shock, surging freight costs (e.g., Hapag-Lloyd's $60 million weekly hit from rerouting), and WTI crude hovering near $101/bbl. Key catalysts include Secretary Rubio's push for Chinese mediation at this week's UN resolution condemning Iran, alongside stranded Asian vessels incentivizing de-escalation, though near-term volatility lingers until policy breakthroughs emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$100,162Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping traffic returning to pre-conflict norms—around 100 vessels daily, including 80 oil tankers—by December 31, reflecting escalating economic pressures and diplomatic momentum amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Traffic persists at 5-10% of normal levels following April naval skirmishes and Iran's selective transit regime, exacerbating a 1 billion-barrel oil supply shock, surging freight costs (e.g., Hapag-Lloyd's $60 million weekly hit from rerouting), and WTI crude hovering near $101/bbl. Key catalysts include Secretary Rubio's push for Chinese mediation at this week's UN resolution condemning Iran, alongside stranded Asian vessels incentivizing de-escalation, though near-term volatility lingers until policy breakthroughs emerge.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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