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Heopolitika·Iran

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

icon for What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Heopolitika·Iran

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

May 31

May 31

$1,715,226 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,715,226 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Enrichment of Uranium

Enrichment of Uranium

$1,080,655 Vol.

2%

icon for Oil Sanction Relief

Oil Sanction Relief

$115,215 Vol.

11%

icon for Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

$353,776 Vol.

2%

icon for Unfreeze Iranian Assets

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

$166,080 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations to end the 2026 conflict center on Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees. President Trump has rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal, which seeks an immediate end to hostilities, lifting of U.S. blockades and sanctions, release of frozen assets, war reparations, and formal recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait, while deferring deeper nuclear limits. The administration instead insists on verifiable curbs including suspension of enrichment, dismantling of key sites, and transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. With the May 31 deadline approaching and the ceasefire described as on life support, traders are watching for any diplomatic breakthrough or escalation that could shift which specific Iranian concessions, if any, gain U.S. acceptance.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.

The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:

- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.

Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.

Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Volume
$1,715,226
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 28, 2026, 10:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities. The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations to end the 2026 conflict center on Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees. President Trump has rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal, which seeks an immediate end to hostilities, lifting of U.S. blockades and sanctions, release of frozen assets, war reparations, and formal recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait, while deferring deeper nuclear limits. The administration instead insists on verifiable curbs including suspension of enrichment, dismantling of key sites, and transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. With the May 31 deadline approaching and the ceasefire described as on life support, traders are watching for any diplomatic breakthrough or escalation that could shift which specific Iranian concessions, if any, gain U.S. acceptance.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.

The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:

- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.

Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.

Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Volume
$1,715,226
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 28, 2026, 10:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

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Ang "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" sa 12%, sinusundan ng "Oil Sanction Relief" sa 11%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 12¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 12% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay naka-generate ng $1.7 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 29, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" sa 12%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 12% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Oil Sanction Relief" sa 11%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.