Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a naval blockade and recent tanker attacks through early May 2026, have suppressed commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of its pre-conflict baseline of roughly 3,000 monthly transits. Heightened insurance premiums, security risks, and Iranian restrictions on vessel permissions continue to limit crossings, with daily volumes often in the single digits amid loitering fleets and selective permissions for non-US or Israeli-flagged ships. Market-implied odds favor 20-39 transits for the week of May 11 as the most likely range, reflecting modest recovery from April lows while pricing in persistent uncertainty over any near-term diplomatic breakthrough or full reopening.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 63%
40-59 29%
60-79 5.1%
<20 3.5%
$79,107 Vol.
$79,107 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
4%
20-39
63%
40-59
29%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 63%
40-59 29%
60-79 5.1%
<20 3.5%
$79,107 Vol.
$79,107 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
$27,915 Vol.
4%
20-39
$13,302 Vol.
63%
40-59
$14,449 Vol.
29%
60-79
$12,011 Vol.
5%
80+
$11,429 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a naval blockade and recent tanker attacks through early May 2026, have suppressed commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of its pre-conflict baseline of roughly 3,000 monthly transits. Heightened insurance premiums, security risks, and Iranian restrictions on vessel permissions continue to limit crossings, with daily volumes often in the single digits amid loitering fleets and selective permissions for non-US or Israeli-flagged ships. Market-implied odds favor 20-39 transits for the week of May 11 as the most likely range, reflecting modest recovery from April lows while pricing in persistent uncertainty over any near-term diplomatic breakthrough or full reopening.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$79,107Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a naval blockade and recent tanker attacks through early May 2026, have suppressed commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of its pre-conflict baseline of roughly 3,000 monthly transits. Heightened insurance premiums, security risks, and Iranian restrictions on vessel permissions continue to limit crossings, with daily volumes often in the single digits amid loitering fleets and selective permissions for non-US or Israeli-flagged ships. Market-implied odds favor 20-39 transits for the week of May 11 as the most likely range, reflecting modest recovery from April lows while pricing in persistent uncertainty over any near-term diplomatic breakthrough or full reopening.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$79,107Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a naval blockade and recent tanker attacks through early May 2026, have suppressed commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of its pre-conflict baseline of roughly 3,000 monthly transits. Heightened insurance premiums, security risks, and Iranian restrictions on vessel permissions continue to limit crossings, with daily volumes often in the single digits amid loitering fleets and selective permissions for non-US or Israeli-flagged ships. Market-implied odds favor 20-39 transits for the week of May 11 as the most likely range, reflecting modest recovery from April lows while pricing in persistent uncertainty over any near-term diplomatic breakthrough or full reopening.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong