Skip to main content
icon for Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Politika·Patakarang Panlabas

Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

icon for Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Politika·Patakarang Panlabas

Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Dec 31, 2027

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Dec 31, 2027

Oo

4% tsansa
Polymarket

$39,745,659 Vol.

Oo

4% tsansa
Polymarket

$39,745,659 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining timeframe and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious buildups, sustained logistics surges, or force concentrations required for a cross-strait landing campaign. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone measures such as air and maritime incursions, coast-guard patrols, and live-fire drills rather than kinetic escalation, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments favoring coercion over force. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises, including record reservist mobilization and anti-blockade drills through mid-August 2026, underscore defensive preparations without triggering corresponding PLA surges. Potential shifts remain possible from miscalculation during routine tensions, abrupt Taiwanese policy moves, or sudden leadership decisions, though these face steep logistical, weather, and alliance-related barriers in the short window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$39,745,659
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining timeframe and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious buildups, sustained logistics surges, or force concentrations required for a cross-strait landing campaign. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone measures such as air and maritime incursions, coast-guard patrols, and live-fire drills rather than kinetic escalation, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments favoring coercion over force. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises, including record reservist mobilization and anti-blockade drills through mid-August 2026, underscore defensive preparations without triggering corresponding PLA surges. Potential shifts remain possible from miscalculation during routine tensions, abrupt Taiwanese policy moves, or sudden leadership decisions, though these face steep logistical, weather, and alliance-related barriers in the short window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$39,745,659
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kaugnay

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

13%
icon for Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

5%
icon for Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

3%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 2 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Sasalakayin ba ng China ang Taiwan bago matapos ang 2026?" sa 4%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 4¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 4% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $39.7 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jul 24, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?," i-browse ang 2 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Isa itong wide-open market. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna para sa "Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay "Sasalakayin ba ng China ang Taiwan bago matapos ang 2026?" sa 4% lang. Walang outcome na may malakas na mayorya, kaya nakikita ito ng mga trader bilang highly uncertain, na maaaring magbigay ng mga kakaibang trading opportunity. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time, kaya i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para panoorin kung paano nag-e-evolve ang probabilities.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Sasalakayin ba ng Tsina ang Taiwan sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.