Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment complexes at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus weaponization-related sites, degrading uranium processing infrastructure and burying or displacing highly enriched uranium stockpiles. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate Iran would require nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it pursued that path, reflecting slowed centrifuge operations, lost monitoring access reported by the IAEA, and damage to key facilities. These developments, combined with leadership transitions and reconstruction delays at sites like Taleghan 2, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Remaining uncertainties include potential undetected rebuilding of test-related equipment or policy shifts that could compress timelines within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% tsansa
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% tsansa
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment complexes at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus weaponization-related sites, degrading uranium processing infrastructure and burying or displacing highly enriched uranium stockpiles. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate Iran would require nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it pursued that path, reflecting slowed centrifuge operations, lost monitoring access reported by the IAEA, and damage to key facilities. These developments, combined with leadership transitions and reconstruction delays at sites like Taleghan 2, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Remaining uncertainties include potential undetected rebuilding of test-related equipment or policy shifts that could compress timelines within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,407Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment complexes at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus weaponization-related sites, degrading uranium processing infrastructure and burying or displacing highly enriched uranium stockpiles. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate Iran would require nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it pursued that path, reflecting slowed centrifuge operations, lost monitoring access reported by the IAEA, and damage to key facilities. These developments, combined with leadership transitions and reconstruction delays at sites like Taleghan 2, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Remaining uncertainties include potential undetected rebuilding of test-related equipment or policy shifts that could compress timelines within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,407Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment complexes at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus weaponization-related sites, degrading uranium processing infrastructure and burying or displacing highly enriched uranium stockpiles. U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026 indicate Iran would require nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it pursued that path, reflecting slowed centrifuge operations, lost monitoring access reported by the IAEA, and damage to key facilities. These developments, combined with leadership transitions and reconstruction delays at sites like Taleghan 2, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Remaining uncertainties include potential undetected rebuilding of test-related equipment or policy shifts that could compress timelines within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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