Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA verification access and leaving the status of its pre-strike stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium uncertain. U.S. intelligence and independent assessments place the timeline to assemble a nuclear device, if Iran chose to pursue one, at approximately one year or longer given the infrastructure losses. Satellite imagery from September and October 2026 shows reconstruction activity at weaponization-related sites such as Minzadayi, yet no evidence indicates completed warhead development or enrichment restart at scale. With only weeks remaining before 2027 and ongoing diplomatic efforts toward verification agreements, traders assign high probability against an imminent test. A rapid, undetected breakout or policy shift could still alter the outcome.