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Heopolitika·Nukleyar

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Heopolitika·Nukleyar

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

12% tsansa
Polymarket

$121,542 Vol.

12% tsansa
Polymarket

$121,542 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and steel plants in March 2026, which prompted lawmakers to fast-track bills proposing NPT withdrawal and revocation of nuclear deal restrictions, Tehran has issued no formal Article X notice requiring three months' advance alert. Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespersons, continue reviewing options without committing, while affirming ongoing safeguards compliance amid accusations of U.S. NPT violations. As of early May, experts note Iran abides by the treaty, prioritizing national interests over exit amid war escalation risks. Traders' 87.6% "No" consensus reflects historical patterns of unfulfilled threats since 2004, the treaty's value for civilian program legitimacy, and high barriers to isolation before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,542
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and steel plants in March 2026, which prompted lawmakers to fast-track bills proposing NPT withdrawal and revocation of nuclear deal restrictions, Tehran has issued no formal Article X notice requiring three months' advance alert. Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespersons, continue reviewing options without committing, while affirming ongoing safeguards compliance amid accusations of U.S. NPT violations. As of early May, experts note Iran abides by the treaty, prioritizing national interests over exit amid war escalation risks. Traders' 87.6% "No" consensus reflects historical patterns of unfulfilled threats since 2004, the treaty's value for civilian program legitimacy, and high barriers to isolation before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,542
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 12% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 12¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 12% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $121.5K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 5, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" ay 12% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 12% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.