Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed office in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, establishing continuity through Assembly of Experts selection while shifting influence toward IRGC commanders and security figures. Recent developments center on Mojtaba’s July statements rejecting U.S. commitments and warning of retaliation, alongside early August reports of his health concerns that Iranian state media countered with public video footage. Ongoing diplomatic talks involving Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian’s constrained role, and persistent regional tensions with Israel and the United States continue to shape assessments of potential further transitions. Traders weigh these signals against historical patterns of opaque succession processes and the risk of escalation or internal consolidation altering the current power structure.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$23,473,268 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
2%
September 30
6%
October 31
10%
November 30
13%
Disyembre 31
18%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,473,268 Vol.
August 15
$60,914 Vol.
<1%
August 22
$28,815 Vol.
1%
August 31
$1,148,082 Vol.
2%
September 30
$438,584 Vol.
6%
October 31
$8,752 Vol.
10%
November 30
$9,572 Vol.
13%
Disyembre 31
$3,995,315 Vol.
18%
June 30, 2027
$236,858 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed office in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, establishing continuity through Assembly of Experts selection while shifting influence toward IRGC commanders and security figures. Recent developments center on Mojtaba’s July statements rejecting U.S. commitments and warning of retaliation, alongside early August reports of his health concerns that Iranian state media countered with public video footage. Ongoing diplomatic talks involving Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian’s constrained role, and persistent regional tensions with Israel and the United States continue to shape assessments of potential further transitions. Traders weigh these signals against historical patterns of opaque succession processes and the risk of escalation or internal consolidation altering the current power structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,473,268Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed office in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, establishing continuity through Assembly of Experts selection while shifting influence toward IRGC commanders and security figures. Recent developments center on Mojtaba’s July statements rejecting U.S. commitments and warning of retaliation, alongside early August reports of his health concerns that Iranian state media countered with public video footage. Ongoing diplomatic talks involving Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian’s constrained role, and persistent regional tensions with Israel and the United States continue to shape assessments of potential further transitions. Traders weigh these signals against historical patterns of opaque succession processes and the risk of escalation or internal consolidation altering the current power structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,473,268Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed office in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, establishing continuity through Assembly of Experts selection while shifting influence toward IRGC commanders and security figures. Recent developments center on Mojtaba’s July statements rejecting U.S. commitments and warning of retaliation, alongside early August reports of his health concerns that Iranian state media countered with public video footage. Ongoing diplomatic talks involving Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezeshkian’s constrained role, and persistent regional tensions with Israel and the United States continue to shape assessments of potential further transitions. Traders weigh these signals against historical patterns of opaque succession processes and the risk of escalation or internal consolidation altering the current power structure.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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