US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran requires 9–12 months to produce a nuclear weapon if it decides to pursue one, a timeline unchanged despite US-Israeli strikes since June 2025 and largely intact stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing concerns over access to facilities like Isfahan and Natanz but find no evidence of diversion to weapons-grade material or active weaponization, with Iran enriching only to 60% despite threats of 90% escalation amid faltering peace talks. Trader consensus reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path exceeding the end-2026 deadline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden regime shifts could alter odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$601,019 Vol.
$601,019 Vol.
Oo
$601,019 Vol.
$601,019 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran requires 9–12 months to produce a nuclear weapon if it decides to pursue one, a timeline unchanged despite US-Israeli strikes since June 2025 and largely intact stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA reports highlight ongoing concerns over access to facilities like Isfahan and Natanz but find no evidence of diversion to weapons-grade material or active weaponization, with Iran enriching only to 60% despite threats of 90% escalation amid faltering peace talks. Trader consensus reflects this extended breakout-to-weapon path exceeding the end-2026 deadline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden regime shifts could alter odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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