Persistent severe restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, with commercial transits averaging just 3-5% of pre-crisis norms amid ongoing vessel attacks and dual-route tensions, underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by October 31. The crisis, now exceeding 216 days since February 2026, features Iranian permit requirements, elevated war-risk premiums at 15 times baseline, and recent projectile strikes that have kept volumes far below the historical 70-80 daily transits. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched geopolitical frictions and lack of near-term diplomatic resolution, though tail risks such as rapid de-escalation or enforced safe corridors could still alter outcomes before month-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateView resolved

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong