**Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability that the US will not impose new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026, reflecting the recent extension of the US-China trade truce and ongoing diplomatic engagement.** In late September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the Busan agreement to January 10, 2027, following meetings between US and Chinese officials during President Xi Jinping’s state visit. This pause covers reciprocal tariffs, certain export controls, and related restrictions, shifting focus toward negotiations on farm purchases, critical minerals, and broader economic issues rather than immediate escalation. Recent US actions have included targeted designations against Chinese-linked entities involved in Iran’s weapons procurement and oil trade, but these fall under separate Iran-focused campaigns rather than broad new measures against Beijing. China has responded with its own countermeasures, such as export bans on select US firms and additions to its entity lists, without triggering a sanctions spiral. With the truce deadline now pushed into 2027 and no major new announcements signaling imminent broad sanctions, the market consensus aligns with a low likelihood of fresh China-specific sanctions materializing before the end of October.