Russia’s ongoing military commitment to Ukraine, with forces engaged in a protracted war of attrition focused on Donbas advances amid significant manpower shortages and recruitment shortfalls, underpins trader expectations that no new conventional invasion will occur in 2026. Reports from mid-2026 highlight the Kremlin’s prioritization of sustaining operations in existing theaters over opening additional fronts, reinforced by Western sanctions, force reconstitution limits, and a strategic emphasis on hybrid measures rather than large-scale cross-border action. While the war remains active through missile strikes and incremental gains, structural barriers such as depleted resources and regime focus on Ukraine reduce the likelihood of expansion. Late-year shifts could still emerge from battlefield collapse, major policy reversals, or unforeseen escalations, though current evidence points to continuity in the present conflict.