Russia’s sustained military campaign in Ukraine, including intensified long-range strikes on energy infrastructure launched in late September 2026 to pressure Kyiv ahead of winter, continues to tie down the bulk of its forces and resources. Western intelligence assessments from September note no prospect of major Russian breakthroughs in Ukraine over the coming months and explicitly rule out indications of an outright invasion elsewhere, citing the months of preparation and troop buildups required that Russia cannot currently sustain amid high casualties and logistical strains. Provocations and hybrid activities near NATO borders remain limited, while Moscow’s focus on forcing Ukrainian capitulation through existing operations reduces the likelihood of opening a new conventional front in 2026.