Russia’s ongoing military operations and resource commitments in Ukraine continue to anchor trader assessments for limited risk of a new invasion in 2026. Russian forces are preparing intensified spring-summer offensives aimed at capturing remaining Donbas territory, with recent large-scale missile and drone strikes supporting ground advances and recruitment drives targeting foreign fighters to sustain roughly 680,000 troops in theater. Economic pressures, including falling GDP, sharp revenue shortfalls, and recruitment challenges, further constrain Moscow’s ability to open additional fronts. No verified diplomatic or military signals point to imminent action against other states, leaving the current positioning as a function of sustained focus on existing objectives and the absence of new catalysts within the resolution window.