Persistent deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations over territorial concessions and security guarantees continues to drive trader consensus against a peace referendum passing before 2027. US-brokered talks, including February 2026 Geneva sessions and later proposals, produced no breakthroughs on core issues, with both sides rejecting plans involving major land transfers that Ukrainian officials have indicated would require voter approval. Stalled diplomacy amid the Iran conflict, Russia's refusal of unconditional ceasefires, and Ukrainian public resistance to ceding regions further reduce prospects for the legislative or electoral conditions needed for such a vote. A late-2026 ceasefire enabling rapid ratification remains possible but would require unprecedented alignment among Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington.