Russia has recently rejected multiple proposals for even limited ceasefires or maritime moratoriums in the Black Sea, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating on August 14 that Moscow will not accept any freeze along current lines and will continue operations until its maximalist demands are met. This stance aligns with statements from other officials ahead of Russia's September parliamentary elections. Negotiations remain stalled over core issues of territorial control and security guarantees for Ukraine, despite earlier U.S.-mediated efforts including a brief May ceasefire and trilateral meetings earlier in 2026. Ukrainian proposals for talks and European diplomatic initiatives have not produced breakthroughs, as battlefield advances and strikes continue on both sides. These developments underscore persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,894,290 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
11%
August 31
2%
December 31
26%
$5,894,290 Vol.
October 31
$845,808 Vol.
11%
August 31
$373,976 Vol.
2%
December 31
$2,137,174 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia has recently rejected multiple proposals for even limited ceasefires or maritime moratoriums in the Black Sea, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating on August 14 that Moscow will not accept any freeze along current lines and will continue operations until its maximalist demands are met. This stance aligns with statements from other officials ahead of Russia's September parliamentary elections. Negotiations remain stalled over core issues of territorial control and security guarantees for Ukraine, despite earlier U.S.-mediated efforts including a brief May ceasefire and trilateral meetings earlier in 2026. Ukrainian proposals for talks and European diplomatic initiatives have not produced breakthroughs, as battlefield advances and strikes continue on both sides. These developments underscore persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,894,290Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia has recently rejected multiple proposals for even limited ceasefires or maritime moratoriums in the Black Sea, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating on August 14 that Moscow will not accept any freeze along current lines and will continue operations until its maximalist demands are met. This stance aligns with statements from other officials ahead of Russia's September parliamentary elections. Negotiations remain stalled over core issues of territorial control and security guarantees for Ukraine, despite earlier U.S.-mediated efforts including a brief May ceasefire and trilateral meetings earlier in 2026. Ukrainian proposals for talks and European diplomatic initiatives have not produced breakthroughs, as battlefield advances and strikes continue on both sides. These developments underscore persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,894,290Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has recently rejected multiple proposals for even limited ceasefires or maritime moratoriums in the Black Sea, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating on August 14 that Moscow will not accept any freeze along current lines and will continue operations until its maximalist demands are met. This stance aligns with statements from other officials ahead of Russia's September parliamentary elections. Negotiations remain stalled over core issues of territorial control and security guarantees for Ukraine, despite earlier U.S.-mediated efforts including a brief May ceasefire and trilateral meetings earlier in 2026. Ukrainian proposals for talks and European diplomatic initiatives have not produced breakthroughs, as battlefield advances and strikes continue on both sides. These developments underscore persistent barriers to any near-term agreement.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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