US assessments indicate that Chinese military readiness for a Taiwan invasion faces delays from ongoing anti-corruption purges within the PLA, while Beijing appears to favor awaiting Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election in hopes of a more amenable cross-strait outcome. The September 2026 Xi-Trump summit produced a trade truce and dialogue without altering core Taiwan policy, amid continued gray-zone pressure such as routine ADIZ incursions and coast guard activity but reduced large-scale exercises. Taiwan’s accelerated procurement of drones, missiles, and defensive systems further underscores deterrence efforts. These factors align with trader consensus pricing a low implied probability of invasion by December 2027, consistent with intelligence views that prioritize 2028 or later as a more plausible timeline absent major escalatory triggers.