China's annual CPI inflation for 2026 trades with the 1.1–1.5% range commanding the highest market-implied odds at 43%, reflecting the recent stabilization of year-over-year readings near 1.2% in April after a 1.0% March print. Elevated non-food and energy prices, linked to global supply-chain pressures from the Middle East conflict, have provided the primary upward lift, while persistently weak food costs and subdued domestic demand continue to cap broader pressures. Trader consensus embeds expectations for moderate growth around 4.4–4.8% and a steady PBOC policy stance that keeps the headline rate below the central bank's informal 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include May CPI data, commodity-price trends, and any further fiscal support measures that could alter the inflation path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateChina Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
0.6 – 1.0% 24%
1.6 – 2.0% 18.9%
2.0-2.4% 13.4%
$40,788 Vol.
$40,788 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
2%
0.6 – 1.0%
24%
1.1 – 1.5%
44%
1.6 – 2.0%
19%
2.0-2.4%
10%
2.5%+
6%
1.1 – 1.5% 50%
0.6 – 1.0% 24%
1.6 – 2.0% 18.9%
2.0-2.4% 13.4%
$40,788 Vol.
$40,788 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
2%
0.6 – 1.0%
24%
1.1 – 1.5%
44%
1.6 – 2.0%
19%
2.0-2.4%
10%
2.5%+
6%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's annual CPI inflation for 2026 trades with the 1.1–1.5% range commanding the highest market-implied odds at 43%, reflecting the recent stabilization of year-over-year readings near 1.2% in April after a 1.0% March print. Elevated non-food and energy prices, linked to global supply-chain pressures from the Middle East conflict, have provided the primary upward lift, while persistently weak food costs and subdued domestic demand continue to cap broader pressures. Trader consensus embeds expectations for moderate growth around 4.4–4.8% and a steady PBOC policy stance that keeps the headline rate below the central bank's informal 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include May CPI data, commodity-price trends, and any further fiscal support measures that could alter the inflation path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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