Recent Middle East energy price volatility has become the dominant driver of UK 2026 CPI expectations, with the Bank of England now projecting inflation near 3% in Q3 and slightly above 3.25% in Q4 after earlier forecasts targeted around 2%. June 2026 CPI at 2.6% shows continued underlying disinflation in core goods and services, yet higher motor fuel and utility costs are feeding through via direct and indirect channels. Market-implied odds cluster around the 2.5–3.9% range because traders weigh the BoE’s upside risks from persistent energy shocks against a loosening labor market and tighter financial conditions that should contain second-round effects. Key near-term catalysts include further energy price data, the next Monetary Policy Report, and any escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical supply risks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9% 27.1%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%+ 8%
$50,643 Vol.
$50,643 Vol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
4%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%+
8%
3.5–3.9% 27.1%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
4.0-4.4% 12%
4.5%+ 8%
$50,643 Vol.
$50,643 Vol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
4%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
12%
4.5%+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East energy price volatility has become the dominant driver of UK 2026 CPI expectations, with the Bank of England now projecting inflation near 3% in Q3 and slightly above 3.25% in Q4 after earlier forecasts targeted around 2%. June 2026 CPI at 2.6% shows continued underlying disinflation in core goods and services, yet higher motor fuel and utility costs are feeding through via direct and indirect channels. Market-implied odds cluster around the 2.5–3.9% range because traders weigh the BoE’s upside risks from persistent energy shocks against a loosening labor market and tighter financial conditions that should contain second-round effects. Key near-term catalysts include further energy price data, the next Monetary Policy Report, and any escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical supply risks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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