Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—36% for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026 and 30% for 4.0–4.4%—reflect consensus on persistent above-target pressures amid the March CPI uptick to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by motor fuels and services at 4.5%. Bank of England MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in late April, projecting CPI rising to 3.3–3.6% by Q3 2026 and higher in Q4 due to Middle East-induced energy shocks (Brent crude peaking near $119/barrel) and elevated firm expectations at 3.6%, despite slowing wage growth to 3.2%. Key swing factors include April CPI data due May 20 and June MPC signals on second-round effects versus labor slack.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
4.0-4.4% 29%
4.5%+ 23%
2.5–2.9% 15.7%
2.0–2.4% 9%
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
6%
2.0–2.4%
9%
2.5–2.9%
16%
3.5–3.9%
11%
4.0-4.4%
29%
4.5%+
38%
4.0-4.4% 29%
4.5%+ 23%
2.5–2.9% 15.7%
2.0–2.4% 9%
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
6%
2.0–2.4%
9%
2.5–2.9%
16%
3.5–3.9%
11%
4.0-4.4%
29%
4.5%+
38%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—36% for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026 and 30% for 4.0–4.4%—reflect consensus on persistent above-target pressures amid the March CPI uptick to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by motor fuels and services at 4.5%. Bank of England MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in late April, projecting CPI rising to 3.3–3.6% by Q3 2026 and higher in Q4 due to Middle East-induced energy shocks (Brent crude peaking near $119/barrel) and elevated firm expectations at 3.6%, despite slowing wage growth to 3.2%. Key swing factors include April CPI data due May 20 and June MPC signals on second-round effects versus labor slack.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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