Elevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, yet resilient high-frequency indicators—including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and manufacturing/services PMIs above 52—support the market-implied 52.4% odds for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey at 1.7%–1.9% imply a moderate quarterly print lifted by base effects from a soft Q4 2025, while fiscal stimulus measures and low unemployment provide additional support. Traders are monitoring the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 53.4%
1.5%–1.8% 12%
2.3%–2.6% 8.8%
≥2.7% 4.7%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
3%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
3%
1.5%–1.8%
27%
1.9%–2.2%
52%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
10%
1.9%–2.2% 53.4%
1.5%–1.8% 12%
2.3%–2.6% 8.8%
≥2.7% 4.7%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,389 Vol.
3%
0.7%–1.0%
$660 Vol.
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$506 Vol.
3%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,040 Vol.
27%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,631 Vol.
52%
2.3%–2.6%
$700 Vol.
18%
≥2.7%
$1,827 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, yet resilient high-frequency indicators—including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and manufacturing/services PMIs above 52—support the market-implied 52.4% odds for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey at 1.7%–1.9% imply a moderate quarterly print lifted by base effects from a soft Q4 2025, while fiscal stimulus measures and low unemployment provide additional support. Traders are monitoring the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$20,752Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, yet resilient high-frequency indicators—including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and manufacturing/services PMIs above 52—support the market-implied 52.4% odds for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey at 1.7%–1.9% imply a moderate quarterly print lifted by base effects from a soft Q4 2025, while fiscal stimulus measures and low unemployment provide additional support. Traders are monitoring the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$20,752Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 15%, the highest in nearly two decades, have tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand, yet resilient high-frequency indicators—including February’s 0.6% month-on-month IBC-Br rise, record March retail sales, and manufacturing/services PMIs above 52—support the market-implied 52.4% odds for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey at 1.7%–1.9% imply a moderate quarterly print lifted by base effects from a soft Q4 2025, while fiscal stimulus measures and low unemployment provide additional support. Traders are monitoring the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, which will resolve the contract against these aggregated probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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